FINING DOWN THE FIELD
Every year I try something new to fine down the Cup field of maybe 24 starters. I guess this year is one of my “statistics” years: mainly trying to eliminate those that do not qualify, rather than the other way round.
Let’s have a look at a few ideas that will certainly help us to come up with a small number of contenders, who will have the benefit of history to assist their chances
VRC Derby placegetters cannot be considered. Sorry, but they just don’t have the record. Now if this turns out to be the year of Tie The Knot, please don’t rush in here with a stockwhip. Back your fancy, sure, but the statistics say that VRC Derby placegetters cannot win the big race.
Some of them would have had no hope. Mahogany springs to mind. But some would have appeared to, and they failed. Maybe they carried too much weight, maybe the three-year-old effort at that very testing track took it out of them . . . I don’t know, but they do not win the Cup.
As to the other derbies, one is a big clue and two aren’t. The Queensland event has produced three excellent second placings; Kingston Town, Rising Fear (huge odds in 1986) and Paris Lane (Caulfield Cup winner). But winners are scarce.
From the AJC Derby, good placegetters who won the Cup were Saintly and turner’s Lane and, of course, Kingston Town won the Derby and just missed in the Cup.
The South Australian Derby is a good one so far as predictions are concerned, especially if contenders also run well in the Adelaide Cup. Subzero is one such animal, Just A Dash another, while Markham (third last year) was another who won the Derby. The Hind and Bohemiath share the chances this year on that basis. Kristalero also ran a nice race, for third, in the Adelaide Cup this year.
The Adelaide Cup offers a chance. The best out of that race, such as Just A Dash, Subzero, Hyperno, Reckless, Shiva’s Revenge, and those above-mentioned, tell us that you omit an Adelaide top performer at your peril. This year, I suppose, we even have to retain the lucky Bulta.
The contenders cannot carry less than 50kg or more than 55.5kg. There is one exception: if they are competing for a second or third time after winning the race. Doriemus and Think Big, plus Vintage Crop, all spring to mind.
Let’s Elope did carry a wee bit less than 50, but she was cleverly placed and ought to have had more weight. I suspect the handicappers are now a little more canny. After winning the Caulfield Cup she only competed in a non-penalty event, just to make sure!
Eliminate any original topweights. They never win. Forget favourites, though they do cut even. Over the past 20 years there have been 22 favourites (three were equal-favs) and four have won, at 5/1, 7/1, 7/2 and 3/1. That’s 22.5 units back for 22, about even. But who wants to finish even after 20 years? So out they go.
Mares win infrequently. Two in 20 years, and six in just over 50 years. I agree that not a lot start, but there are always several each year. Only the very good ones win, the proven ones. Light Fingers, Let’s Elope, Empire Rose, the kind that already have a very good win in a big race to boast of. Only Hi Jinx robbed the till.
A win in one of the Group races of the current season, or even a place, is an advantage. In fact, in the past 20 years, the only Cup winners that didn’t have one were What A Nuisance, Kiwi, who did a hit-and-run, and Vintage Crop ditto.
Ages? No question about it. Four, five or six. Skip the others, even though sevens and eights do well. I have taken Doriemus in some doubles at big odds, but that’s my heart talking. The statistics tell me I was probably affected by the sun.
Let’s sum up for a Cup plan:
(1) The horse must have placed in a Group race this spring.
(2) Eliminate any original topweight.
(3) The horse must be four, five or six years old.
(4) Eliminate any horses weighted outside 55.5kg, unless they have won the race in a previous year.
(5) Eliminate any mares.
(6) Exclude any horses that have placed (1, 2, 3) in the VRC Derby.
(7) Exclude any horse that has won the AJC Derby.
From those horses remaining, place an asterisk against any that placed in either the Adelaide Cup or the SA Derby. They represent special chances for your trifectas. Only include Queensland Derby placegetters for a place.
Now see how many are left in. Probably a couple with asterisks, and a handful of others.
(8) From those remaining, eliminate any over 15/1 pre-post. They don’t win these days.
If no more than four remain, box them in a trifecta and a quinella and back them all to win. It’s only once a year, after all. If more than four, start at the top of their weights and stop after four selections are reached.
As to the Queensland Derby placegetters, I recommend that you box, in the placings only, any that get through the final qualifying stage. I just cannot see them reversing that trend of only running a place in the race.
PPM November 98