We all want to win—and win big. Well, you can! Believe me, there’s no great mystery, as any one of you reading this article is capable of handicapping the Melbourne Cup field, and doing it well enough to win huge amounts of cash from the trifecta.
The Cup trifecta pool is the largest investment on a single race in Australasia, and it’s increasing every year. And it’s this massive amount of money that prompted me to form a small syndicate six years ago. Since then, it’s been one success after another (as P.P.M. has detailed already).
This year we anticipate investing more than $40,000 in units of $336, at least double that of 1988, and because of our past triumphs we are quietly confident of winning again. Last year, our syndicate—which totalled 26—won $149,181 on the Cup trifecta.
PPM editor Brian Blackwell has told me how many readers have written in asking for the secret of our success. Well, firstly, let me say this—don’t be put off by the statements of some professionals who claim the Melbourne Cup is the most difficult race to handicap. They have been saying this for so long that they now can’t help believing it!
I believe it’s just pure nonsense and negativity. My own success is proof enough and I stand on the record of 14 years of handicapping the Cup, with 10 successes and dividends ranging from
$14,700 to as little as $1100.
Basically, I use the Don Scott method of Class and Weight Ratings to arrive at the final selections, and I pay special attention to certain areas of the form.
The good news is that a computer is not essential. Exactly the same results can be achieved by any punter using pen and paper, as long as he or she is prepared to put in some time and effort analysing the form. I like to keep it all as simple as possible and see my workout progress to the point where all is revealed. This is the way I began years ago.
THE METHOD
Use the Sportsman for the form of each horse. Consider only a horse’s best performance which is closest to the actual conditions of the Melbourne Cup. I use a coloured highlight pen to mark off the past race I have chosen as the ‘best performance’ guide. Pay special attention to the track condition, jockey and weight carried. You must now refer to Don Scott’s masterpiece, Winning More, for his Class and Weight Ratings tables; these are used as the basis for our handicapping. (You can also, if you wish, use Brian Blackwell’s Invader Ratings instead.) These ratings are the foundation stone to successfully handicapping the Cup.
HANDICAPPING
Looking at the ‘best performance’ race, you calculate how many kilograms, if any, the horse carried over the Limit (bottom) weight. If a horse carried 56kg in a Sydney Welter on a Saturday, with the Limit weight being 51kg, the answer is 5kg. You now consult the Class and Weight Ratings tables (in Winning More, Appendix A, Page 372) to find the actual value of the race. We find a figure of 59, to which we add the 5, making a total of 64.
If the horse won the race, no further calculation is needed for the moment. If the horse was beaten, note down the losing margin and express it in kilograms (the general rule is 1.5kg equals one length). This is deducted from the total of 64. Let’s say a horse was beaten by four kgs (2.75 lengths). It would, then, end up with a rating of 60.
These will be your ‘base ratings’ for each horse. On the form spreadsheet (Page 7) you mark this base rating into Column 6. We now look at Column 7 and this is a really important one as it deals with ‘form’ and this means it is the column where you allow for bonuses to be given.
Lightly-weighted, improving horses should be given bonuses from four to eight kgs. Experience indicates that these horses frequently fill a placing at long odds, such as last year when the 50/1 chance Na Botto ran 3rd. In the case of the more fancied and higher-weighted horses, the handicapper has already done his work, so form bonuses should be much lower, from 0.5 kgs to 3 kgs only.
COLUMN 8, CONSISTENCY:
This is another area where bonuses, or penalties, are given for consistency or lack of it. Those with Winning More should refer to Page 164 for the consistency table.
COLUMN 9, DISTANCE:
This is another area for bonuses or penalties. (In Winning More, refer to Page 169.) You must assess a horse’s ability to run the distance (3200m).
COLUMN 10, BARRIER:
Certain barriers receive penalties, ranging from 0.5 kg (19, 20, 21), 1 kg (22, 23) and 1.5 kgs (24).
COLUMN 11, JOCKEY SKILL:
This will have to be obtained mainly from the premiership ladder, usually found in your form guides. I compare each jockey against a hypothetically perfect rider and then penalise on a descending scale, giving the top jockeys a half kilo penalty, down to five kgs for a mediocre rider. This is a matter of personal judgement.
COLUMN 12, RELATIVE WEIGHT:
This is the weight carried over the Limit in today’s race and it is DEDUCTED from the base rating which we have established in Column 6.
COLUMN 13, TRACK CONDITION:
You must assess the horse’s ability to handle the track conditions. Unless the going is slow to heavy, forget about it. However, if these conditions prevail then penalise horses unable to handle the going by deducting 3 to 5 kgs.
COLUMN 14, SUM TOTAL OF CALCULATIONS:
You add up all the figures in the columns—pluses and minuses—and you have the final rating figures.
Now, we all know that recent form is the most reliable but it may be necessary to go back in a horse’s preparation to find a suitable race under similar conditions for the ‘base rating’ race. In the case of the Kiwi horses, you must look closely at their New Zealand form. The same applies to other imported horses. Choose the right race on which to calculate your base rating and you have the springboard for accurate future ratings.
Just as important is a careful analysis of the improving lightweights. The difference between winning and losing is often decided by how correctly you, as a handicapper, have anticipated the
amount of improvement and the oftenoverlooked ability of these runners. They constantly surprise and I must say that my own success on the Cup has largely been attributed to picking out these ‘smokies’.
We now come to the betting angle. You have to maximise your betting dollar. That is why I decided to use the multiple trifecta for our syndicate investments, working on a $336 unit. I choose the top 10 selections from my handicap sheet.
Last year, I chose a 7 x 7 x 10 multiple combination—that is, seven horses for the first place, the same seven for second place and then those horses and three more for third place.
Although the Melbourne Cup is the highlight of the year for our syndicate, and the source of our biggest wins, we do invest on other selected races, such as this year’s Sydney Cup. A multiple trifecta combination of 5 x 9 x 10 at $320 a unit was successful and returned us a divvy of $9852.90 on the N.S.W. TAB
My handicapping, once again, proved deadly accurate!
PPM October, 1989