Last month I got quite warmed up about my basic AB concepts, and I added C, for the actual trifecta component, and D, for betting on the extra or daily double. You could also use D where you have race-to-race doubles, as punters do in Victoria. Anyone could open a few TAB accounts, so they could bet on any or all of those doubles when the occasion arose.

One of the main attractions of an AB bet is that it can control your betting, as it demands a fairly hefty piece of capital, and it might stop temptation from placing a dozen or so worthless small bets in your path every weekend.

Some punters tend to remain more focused on their aim of making a profit, when they really home in on one race, or two at the most. Even on big-race days, when the adrenalin is flowing, and there are plenty of tempting offers around, there is a lot of sanity in the argument that one should still limit one's bets to the best opportunities.

The best opportunities, at this time of year, might not be absolutely safe (whatever is?), but fortunes are there to be made. Imagine, for example, Bart Cummings winning the Cox Plate, a small field in any year, with a 40/1 chance. That makes for a rather nice AB-field trifecta. Yet Dane Ripper did it for him. Then, next preparation, she came out fresh at the ridiculous odds of 8/1, and won again. I didn't back her, so this is all written with the benefit of that greatest of gifts, hindsight. But the bet was there for the taking.

In 1996, Bart also won the Melbourne Cup with Saintly, at what seem, in retrospect, to be remarkable odds. It happens. There is a lot of logic in taking Bart in anything big. So, why not try AB trifectas on the remaining big races? They will be invariably legs of doubles, so you can identify a second race if you want to do an ABCD outlay.

 Let's say the Cox Plate, the Moonee Valley Cup, the Mackinnon Stakes and the VRC Derby, the Melbourne Cup, and the new-style wfa Sandown Cup, are all on your list. And there will be some choice shorter races to investigate. Plenty of action right at the top.

The idea I am putting forward here is that with the AB and my CD additions you will have an organised approach to those tempting big pies. You will have two chances to win the race each time, and four chances at the double of the day (two selections in each leg), and four chances of pulling off a stunning trifecta or two (AB or BA in each leg).

What I have done below is to pull out a race meeting at random, apply a handful of "rules", and show you how the ABCD idea could work for you. I did NOT back the winners, so there is no claim made. Somebody had the winners, but not me. The plan below is designed to show you how to operate your finances, so you have some decent bets but always retain a really big chance of winning a sizeable sum.

RULES

  1. Selections for the AB are the favourite and the last horse before 10/1. If a clash with either selection, take the selection on the lower weight line. If still a clash, take the one with better last-start form.
  2. Bet one unit A, one unit B to win leg one.
  3. Bet one unit AB trifecta (C ) in each leg.
  4. Bet one unit divided by four as doubles (D). (See last month's Plan of the Month.)
  5. Be prepared to bet one or two units A and one or two units B in leg two, if neither A nor B wins the first leg.
  6. Total maximum outlay is nine units (see last month's Plan of the Month).

The first Saturday of the new racing season seems a good one to choose for a random inspection of the workings of a plan, so let's say we choose the NSW TAB daily double races for Caulfield. I used the Sydney Morning Herald market published on Friday, August 6.

Leg One: Magic Music 5/2 and Our Scenario 8/1

Leg Two: Flying Voodoo 7/2 and The Book Maker 5/1

BETS:

A and B Leg One: One unit ($30) A and one unit B. Magic Music won 11/2. Outlay $60, return $195, profit $135.

C Leg One: Outlay $24, trifecta won, paid $604, profit $580.

D: Outlay $7.50 each of four doubles (equals one full unit), won and paid $44, multiplied by 7.5 = $330, profit $300.

No bet A or B, Leg Two (the daily double was alive and looked promising).

C Leg Two: Outlay $26, trifecta lost. Loss $26.

Total: A and B outlay $60, return $195, profit $135; C outlay $50 return $604, profit $554; D outlay $30, return $330, profit, $300; total five unit's outlaid ($140), returns $1129, profit $989 (706 per cent).

Needless to say, this is abnormal, but it is all above board and in your papers, and it is quite possible. A sound profit can be made by supporting a well-favoured horse and one on the "next level" of favouritism, in each leg like that.

I'm sure you'll agree that it is at least worth experimenting with. I have and, I can reassure you, it is!

Click here to read Part 1.

By The Optimist

PRACTICAL PUNTING - NOVEMBER 1999