Beginners guide to framing a betting market
BET YOUR OWN PRICES (Part 1)

In this special series, our regular contributor Denton Jardine analyses the entire process of 'framing a betting market' from a punter's angle. How can you draw up your own reliable set of prices, so you can bet the overlays with the bookies or on the tote? Denton takes you through all the necessary steps in this beginner's guide to producing a betting market.

There is a misguided belief among rank-and-file punters that bookmakers know something they don't know when they compile a betting market. I can tell you that basically this is a myth. When a bookie puts up his prices, he is merely offering an opinion. Nothing more.

Most bookies employ price setters who, using their opinion(!) provide a set of prices. But what happens from that point is up to the punters. Prices will fluctuate madly, as we all know, when the law of supply and demand sets to work before a race.

So, having said all this, I now say that you have nothing to fear but fear itself as far as framing your own market goes. There's no great mystery to it. You do not need to have 'inside information' or be at trackwork at 5 am every day. You don't need a law degree to work out the percentages.

What you do need is the time and the patience to sit down, study the form, draw up your main chances - and then set about putting a price on their chances. Ask yourself if Horse A was to run in the race 100 times how many times could it be expected to win it? You might say, well, his form is okay but not that good, he might just get away with a few of those 100 races. In this case, you can start looking at 25/1 or 33/1 about Horse A. But this is just a general overview, a sort of summing up of what is required. If you have enough knowledge, you should be able to assess quite accurately, overall, what price is reasonable about every horse in a race.

You will know from your experience of racing that Horse B, say, is not a bad conveyance, but not one you would want to back at less than around 3/1. Another horse might make stronger appeal; you might feel happy and confident accepting 2/1 about it.

In drawing up a market on a race, you have to put yourself in a bookmaker's shoes, so to speak. He sets prices in a way which enables him to bet what is called 'over round' – now, in racing terms, ' round' means 100 per cent and 'over round' means the figure the bookie sets his prices to in a bid to make a profit. Let's say, 120 per cent. That 20 per cent is his hoped-for margin, or he takes in $120 in bets and pays out only $100 to the punters.

It doesn't always work out that way, of course, and the bookie is grateful if he can get away with 6 to 10 per cent on a regular basis. The truth is that bookies often bet to 'losing' figures; they gamble, in fact, and take risks in a bid to attract business.

You do not have to take risks. The 'book' as far as you are concerned is completely within your hands. You don't have to worry about turnover tax, or paying betting clerks. Your sole task is to work out your selections and then put a price on them. It's a bit like deciding to sell your car - you know how much you want and you also know you won't go below a certain price. It's the same with your selections.

You are valuing them in the market place. If you cannot get your price, then don't bother. If, in reality, you can pick a certain amount of winners, at a certain average price, and you always obtain better than your predicted price, then you will end up winning.

Let's say you can pick 30 winners which you price at 5/2 in every 100 bets. If you achieved the 5/2, you would bet 100 units for a return of 30 x 3.5 equalling 105, a small 5 per cent profit. But if you were able to secure the overlay
average of 7/2 about each winner, then your return would be 30 x 4.5 equalling 135 units. Your profit has shot up enormously.

The main point to be aware of when you sit down to compile your prices is that you must be sure of your facts - that is, do all you can to ensure the selections you have made, in order of preference, are as solid as you can make them.

And don't get all concerned if you see that the morning newspaper market doesn't agree with you. This is usually a good sign that you could be on to value runners!

By this point, you will have decided which approach suits you best. On this page I have given two clear examples of how you can easily frame a market, based on your own judgment, and also with the help of strong 'factors' which always influence the outcome of a race.

It helps, I have found, if you can identify 5 or 6 main chances in each race. Once you have done this, you can price this group then worry briefly about the horses you consider have only rough chances. The group you select should make up the main portion of your market percentages.

You can work to 100 per cent, or frame your market to a lower or higher percentage. To be realistic, I always feel that a market should be set to around 115 to 120 per cent. The way things are in the betting market place, a set of prices framed to this percentage mark is going to reflect 'virtual reality' much more than one set to 90 or 100 per cent.

But, again, it's up to you. Take a look now at the two price-setting systems under the headline 'How to do your own pricing' and see how you go. I am confident you will find them easy to follow, and that you will, given sensible selections come up with a realistic set of prices per race.

The following is a list of percentages to which you must work when setting prices. These are known as the bookies' percentages.

BOOKMAKERS' PERCENTAGE

HOW TO DO YOUR OWN PRICING
The first pricing method is one that has been used by a number of professional punters for many years. It can provide you with a very good value market, provided you can arrive at a rational set of 6 main chances in a race.

Once you have decided on the 6 horses you wish to price, you put them through the following 10 questions, and a horse gets a tick for every question with a positive answer. Once you have done each horse, add up all the ticks and divide that number into 120. The answer will give you how much each tick is worth. Then you simply multiply each horse's number of ticks by the amount each tick is worth.

The resulting figure is regarded as the horse's percentage chance and you simply refer to the bookies' chart to obtain the price. The 10 questions are:

1. HAS IT WON AT THE COURSE?
2. HAS IT WON AT THE DISTANCE, OR CLOSE TO IT?
3. HAS IT GOT WINNING OR PLACED FORM LAST 3 STARTS?
4. IS IT FIT?
5. HAS IT GOT A GOOD BARRIER DRAW?
6. IS IT RACING IN THE RIGHT CLASS?
7. HAS IT GOT A TOP JOCKEY ABOARD?
8. DOES IT COME FROM A TOP STABLE?
9. HAS IT GOT THE SAME WEIGHT, OR LESS THAN, AS AT ITS LAST START?
10. CAN IT HANDLE TRACK CONDITIONS?

Let's say you get a total of 35 ticks. You divide this into 120 and that means each tick is worth 3.42. So if Horse A, say, has 7 ticks then it would have a price of 24 per cent, or say 3/1. Horse B has 5 ticks, so its price is, say, 9/2. Horse C has the same number of ticks, so it's 9/2 as well. Horse D has 4 ticks, which makes it a 6/1 chance. Horse E has 2 ticks, so its price is, say, 14/1, while Horse F has 3 ticks and its price is 9/1. There is your market. Now for a second method, much used by bookmakers for generations. Each horse in the race is given Xs or Os.

The markings are as follows:

XXXX Brilliant chance
XXX Very good chance, close to a winner 
XX Good chance
X Handy prospect, but with a question
OX Middle of the order ranking
OOX Just a possibility
O Has only a slight chance
OOO Roughie, next to no chance.

The total number of Xs in your race assessment are counted. The total is then divided into 115. If you have, say, 9 Xs then divided into 115 they equal 12.77 each. So if a horse has been given 3 Xs its price is 3 x 12.77 equalling 38.3 per cent. This is equivalent to, say, 6/4. For each 0 in front of an X, you deduct one third of the value of X. So, if a horse has OOX, its price is 12.77 minus 8.5 equalling 4.27, or about 25/1.

Let's look at a sample race:

HORSE A: XXX
HORSE B: XX
HORSE C: XX
HORSE D: X
HORSE E: OX
HORSE F: OOX
HORSE G: OOO

Here we have a total of 10 Xs, so each X is worth 11.5. That means Horse A is priced at 3 x 11.5 equalling 34.5 per cent, or say 2/1. Horses B and C are priced at 2 x 11.5 equalling 23 per cent, or say 7/2. Horse D is priced at 1 x 11.5 or 8/1, while Horse E is priced at 11.5 minus 33 per cent, equalling 7.59, or around 12/1. Horse F is priced at 11.5 minus 66 per cent equalling 3.79 or about 25/1. The other runner is any price.

NEXT MONTH: More exiting ways you can take on the bookie with your own prices.

Click here to read Part 2.

By Donton Jardine

PRACTICAL PUNTING - AUGUST 1995