• The Safe Plan • The Market Movers • The Easy Plan

Because you are reading this magazine, I assume that betting on the races is one of your considerations for using your leisure time. You want to have some fun and maybe win a bit or lose a bit. This is what I call gambling, recreational-style.

The gambler doesn't know how he is travelling financially, he usually has no real plan of attack and, sadly, he must lose in the longer term.

One of the problems I constantly read about, and on which I have done a lot of research for myself, concerns the long losing cycles that punters encounter when betting. It seems to be one of the greatest obstacles to overcome and, in many cases, survive mentally if not financially.

You can protect the working capital or your betting bank by setting up that golden rule about betting only one per cent of your bank on any selection at any time.

Then we get back to your selection method, or system. Any selection approach should also have some solid, built-in rules that would ensure long losing runs DO NOT occur. I scraped through my library and devised the following plan which I suggest will ensure that losing runs can be eliminated or, at least, reduced to a minimum.


  1. Bet on Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane metropolitan tracks on Saturdays.
  2. Eliminate any race with more than 14 runners.
  3. From TAB No. 1 and going down no further than TAB No. 4, look for the following:

    (a) The horse must have run 1st, 2nd or 3rd last start on a metropolitan track within the last 14 days.

    (b) The selection must have had a minimum of five starts and a win strike of 25 per cent or more.

    (c) It must have been running in the same State as the current race.

    (d) Do not bet if the win dividend on offer is less than $3 (2/1).

This plan is not going to give you a lot of activity h, it I'm sure there's very little chance of a long losing run.

Which brings me to winning prices, and the question of how much the punter is expecting to win from his/her betting.

If you had a bet and picked a winner which paid $3.50, and the punter next to you picked another winner paying $13.50, which one of you would be more pleased? I must admit I get a much better feeling picking a winner at good odds and I think you would be happier betting on the longer priced horse.

But, with betting, we must take the long-term viewpoint. Which punter will be better off over a year? The answer is not really known until both punters' betting activities are compared after at least 100 bets. After that, if you're showing a profit of, say, 20 per cent on turnover, and your competition, which is really what they are, is showing the same, then neither one is better than the other.

I suggest, however, that your competition has travelled a harder road, by relying on double-figure odds' winners, than you have by backing shorter-priced selections. So I get to safety versus risk.

This problem does not arise in the beginning of your betting activity as you are betting in relatively small amounts. Assume you have a betting bank of $500 and you are betting in $5 units. No problem here in betting on the $3.50 or $13.50 horse.

When you are betting in $500 units, the mental attitude changes. You're confident enough with the $3.50 shot but you have seen too many double-figure horses lose, not unexpectedly, so this one becomes a problem. Your attitude has changed in that you are now happier betting on the shorter priced horse rather than the longer priced one!

The Safe Plan, which I proposed previously, is a conservative plan offering security and, by its very design, will provide short-priced selections which you'll be confident to support. It is safe - but it's also boring.

That's the other problem that arises. To bet means we take risks, which is exciting when you win. It's quite depressing when you lose more often than you win, which is the normal state of affairs.

To overcome this problem (it is complicated, isn't it?), I suggest another betting bank to operate another plan, which will provide you with a bit more activity and more risk. If you had a $500 betting bank, I am suggesting you make that $400 (bet $4) and put the $100 (bet $l) aside for this plan.

SKY Channel has been a real boost for punters. The details provided allow for some interesting approaches based on current information. This has always been a problem for the offcourse punter.

Now SKY has, for most races, a section appearing about five minutes before each race showing the Market Movers. Of the first four on the list, look at the lowest TAB number: This is the selection.

Ignore the race completely if the selection is showing less than $3.

I've been watching this one for some time now and it's most effective, and the number of placegetters is quite extraordinary.

The principle is as old as the hills in that you're following the money, so to speak, and then combining this information with the handicapper's opinion (most of the time).

If you believe the method offers too many races to bet on, which it does, then I suggest the following:

  1. When a profit is made, stop betting.
  2. Restrict your betting to certain types of races.
  3. Restrict your use of the system to complement the Safe Plan, thus giving yourself a saver bet.

The disadvantages in operating this method are twofold. Firstly, Telstra's service may decide to break down and you cannot phone in your bet at race time; secondly, SKY may let you down and not show the Market Movers for every race due to their interview process (and all the interviews seem remarkably similar to me).

Taking the disadvantages into account, which may very well save you money, anyway, and not getting uptight when it happens, will provide you with a good runner most of the time. I've been impressed with the winning prices so far.

You may, of course, choose to use a Seventext to obtain the most popular four horses in the race. At the track it's not a problem.

If the whole concept of the Market Movers Plan doesn't interest you, I propose one more plan that can be utilised. Please note that these are risk plans in that they form the basis for future development by you. It's only by arriving at a unique approach, with the correct research, that you can hope to beat the competition in the end.

The Safe Plan can be very easily modified to provide extra activity. The convenience is that you only have to do the form once and simply identify the special bets, which are the safe selections to bet on.


  1. Bet on Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane metropolitan tracks on Saturdays.
  2. From TAB No. 1 and going down no further than TAB No. 4, look for the following:
  3. The horse must have a formline of 3-1, 2-1 or 1-1 for its last two starts.
  4. The last start (which must be a win) should have been on a metropolitan track within the last 28 days.
  5. It must have been running in the same State as today's race.
  6. Do not bet if the win dividend on offer is less than $3 (2/1).

Finally, consider these two extra rules for the Safe Plan to provide Special Bets:


  1. Eliminate any race with more than 14 runners.
  2. The selection must have had a minimum of five starts and a win strike of 25 per cent or more.

Click here to read Part 3.
Click here to read Part 1.
Click here to read Part 2.

By Keith Roth