What makes up a good system? Well, the answer is any set of rules that actually works and comes up with winners at profitable odds!
Seriously, though, this is something a lot of people have thought about for a long time. Some years back, UK form analyst Tony Peach joined two other British experts to compile 15 rules they thought were conducive to good betting.
In his booklet Planning A Better Bet, Peach outlines the rules (remember, they were drawn with UK racing in mind):
- No selling races, apprentice races or females only (jockeys) races.
- Must have run 1st, 2nd or 3rd last start.
- Must be the pre-post favourite, quoted at odds between 5/4 and 7/4.
- Must have run within the last 28 days.
- Race must have between five and 15 runners inclusive.
- Must be selected by top media experts.
- Must be carrying 56kg or less.
- Must be a winner at the distance.
- Must be ridden by one of the top jockeys at the track.
- Must not be running in a race with prizemoney of $45,000 or more.
- Must not be running in a race of more than 3200m.
- Must be in a race where the favourite has won at least once in the last five seasons.
- Must not be carrying ‘extra’ weight (overweight).
- Must be mentioned by a tipster of your choice (at this time, the tipster Split Second was named in the rules).
- Must have been placed in the first three in at least one of its previous three outings (if, of course, it had previous runs).
Peach, who then worked for a national racing magazine, threw the 15 rules open to readers who had to pick six of them. There was, he says, a tremendous response. The six rules that won universal support were as follows:
- No selling races, apprentice races or females only (jockeys) races.
- Must have run 1st, 2nd or 3rd last start.
- Must be pre-post favourite, quoted at odds between 5/4 and 7/4.
- Must have run within the last 28 days.
- Race must have between five and 15 runners inclusive.
- Must be mentioned by a tipster of your choice.
Peach’s booklet points up rather clearly that punters can be a cautious crowd, more intent on regular returns than actual profits.
The inclusion of rules 2 and 3 is proof of that!
While this may seem a safety-first guide, it doesn’t give much room to land big winners, and big winners are needed regularly if a punter is to have any chance of long-term success. Restricting yourself to favourites between 5/4 and 7/4 seems a very, very conservative move.
Peach talked about the ‘salient points’ to be considered in drawing up a system and says: “I suppose that if five people were asked to give a line of thought on the query, each punter would come up with a different answer.”
How right he is! But it IS worth examining what various informed people have to say on the subject and in next month’s PPM we’ll bring you the views of one of the men who masterminded the big tote attacks on Hong Kong races.
His ideas are most interesting, even if a bit ‘involved’ for the average punter. There are, though, some real ‘nuggets of gold’ in what he has to say about betting.
After all, this man has made MILLIONS OF DOLLARS betting on horseracing, and how many of us can claim that!
So don’t miss this excellent article in the September PPM.
It will open your eyes . . . wide.
By Rick Roberts
PRACTICAL PUNTING – AUGUST 2009