September 19, 2009The Underwood Stakes, according to most punters, belongs to Whobegotyou however what needs to be remembered is this field comprises of some really tough horses and some very promising younger horses that have been standing up when it counts. If you really like Whobegotyou at $2.60 (TAB pre post) then you need to consider the often touted word "value" because he is not value. This is massively different than saying he is a risk which is not what I am saying. If he won

September 19, 2009

The Underwood Stakes, according to most punters, belongs to Whobegotyou however what needs to be remembered is this field comprises of some really tough horses and some very promising younger horses that have been standing up when it counts. If you really like Whobegotyou at $2.60 (TAB pre post) then you need to consider the often touted word "value" because he is not value. This is massively different than saying he is a risk which is not what I am saying. If he won by 4 lengths I would not be surprised one iota but for a horse that gets back in the run a fraction, who will be watched by other jockeys and THEN has to beat off some slick horses on their day to boot represents no value at the quoted price.

Although I was not going to have a serious look at Caulfield, based on my quick initial look through the open class races on Thursday night, curiosity had me looking at Race 2, the Mares event. As you know I am trying to concentrate on the open company races however a serious punter, nay make that desperate, must pop outside the comfort zone at times and I do not see why you would not take about 2/1 Romneya as opposed to 6/4 Whobegotyou. Both have serious contenders but pre race I believe Romneya is the class horse of the race who will sit just off the speed and be an 1/1 chance at the 200m when she challenges. She may well be beaten as there are mares like Clandon, Partiva, Lamaar and Royal Snippets that are chances but I cannot see Whobegotyou an 1/1 chance at the 200m mark. However, class wise Whobegotyou has it all over Romneya and that is where it could all change.

If Vigor is considered a top winning chance, and why wouldn't he be, then perhaps his fans should be taking the 5/1 in the Caulfield Cup as he will be confirmed as the weight special of the Caulfield Cup (he already is, isn't he) and would firm to 5/2 favourite. At that price he would be a genuine Caulfield Cup favourite. You could apply similar logic for the Cox Plate AND the Caulfield Cup for Whobegotyou (11/1 CC, 9/4 Cox) as his price would be close to 6/4 for the Cox Plate and also halve for the CCup if the win or close up run eventuated.

Oh yes, there is a lot to think about if you are serious about the punt

WFA/SET WEIGHTS: Best Horse based on career best
Caulfield
Race 4: Headway
Race 5: Manhattan Rain
Race 7: Maldivian
Race 8: Absolut Glam
Rosehill
Race 6: Vision And Power

TRAINERS (they are all chances)
MGPRICE
Caulfield
Race 1: Tribunal and Grief
Race 3: Rightfully Yours
Race 4: Corsaire and Clocked
Race 6: Raheeb
Race 7: Heart Of Dreams

JPRIDE
Race 6: Vision And Power and Miss Marielle

Good luck