One of the toughest jobs as a public tipster is selecting the actual races in which to make the selections. Past experience has taught me there is no way I can satisfy every reader of my blogs or listeners to my podcasts. Betting on horse races is all about collecting more than you outlay and as such I personally prefer betting and selecting in what I loosely call "easy races". Easy races are those where I believe there are only a few genuine chances and usually most of those chances a
One of the toughest jobs as a public tipster is selecting the actual races in which to make the selections. Past experience has taught me there is no way I can satisfy every reader of my blogs or listeners to my podcasts. Betting on horse races is all about collecting more than you outlay and as such I personally prefer betting and selecting in what I loosely call "easy races". Easy races are those where I believe there are only a few genuine chances and usually most of those chances are well fancied in the market. Often the easier races are in wfa or set weights races where the handicapper does not blur the form by their attempt to even the competition with weighting all the runners.
In the course of a year there are "hard races" I must tackle publicly simply because of their stature in the racing calendar. Obviously the major 1600m Group 1 handicaps (Epsom, Doncaster) and the two major Cups (Caulfield Cup, Melbourne Cup) fall into this category as well as a host of others. I bet in those races but with minimal stakes and as carefully as I can for the obvious reasons. I was thinking about this dilemma the other day and started thinking back to a process I initiated with my own betting a while back where I graded the races by their complexity/difficulty level. The only problem with this was that at times the grading process became a bit convoluted and I found myself spending too much valuable time grading the races.
What, then, is the best way for followers of my selections to bet? Followers of my Pension Plan series know I prefer to bet for the place once I can receive $1.70 or more and in the target betting I do on my own bets I quite prefer this approach. However what about those followers who want to bet for the win only or each way or want to take exotics? Basically I cannot do any more than suggest what I would do based on the prices published either in the papers or in the fixed pre post markets the TAB offers when it comes to the non exotic bets. As for the exotic bets: wow, what a complex issue this one is. I will give this some thought during my break overseas.
However starting in the New Year I will use the fixed pre post TAB odds as my guide and make my recommendations accordingly based on what I perceive as value. I have no intention of suggesting a price for each of my chances but what I can see, after four decades of dedicated punting, is what I know is value and I will simply make a value selection per race either for the win or the place. This Saturday I am selecting in three races: two at Moonee Valley (Races 6,7) and one at Ascot (Race 6). Where things will blur a fraction, at times, is when I declare a Best Bet Of The Day in one race (Amberino in Race 7 at MV: on form she is $1.80 for mine) and a value place bet as well, which is the case. I will let you know who that is tomorrow on the podcast.
It goes without saying if I declare a place bet as value then it must also be a value bet for the win but commonsense also says perhaps it is better just to bet for the place as it is safer. This is where it stops for me as I can only recommend what I PERSONALLY prefer: the next step is yours. Do what suits your style of betting and risk versus return you are comfortable with and I will do what I am comfortable with - selecting the right races.
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