Each Thursday afternoon I print out the form for the races of interest for the forthcoming Saturday with quite some excitement. I am like the proverbial kid in the lolly shop as sitting down with a "fresh" form guide is one of the pleasures of my life. Yes, I know there is a kind of sadness attached to that but that's me. There is something that captivates me about the challenge ahead as I start circling , underlining and slotting the chances into my ABCD order. As I look at each race
Each Thursday afternoon I print out the form for the races of interest for the forthcoming Saturday with quite some excitement. I am like the proverbial kid in the lolly shop as sitting down with a "fresh" form guide is one of the pleasures of my life. Yes, I know there is a kind of sadness attached to that but that's me. There is something that captivates me about the challenge ahead as I start circling , underlining and slotting the chances into my ABCD order. As I look at each race I mentally grade each event into as an A B C or D event with naturally the D events being the toughest.
As I was doing this tonight I thought of the issue of value. In some respects I hate the word "value" due to the never ending theories about how to calculate it but we punters must try to at least tame it. This weekend there is one race in Perth (Race 5) I thought only had two serious chances and one strong maybe. The two main chances are Roman Time and Mega Steel with the lesser chance Broadway Belle as well as the second stringers like Beat The Storm, Superscenic and New Spice that win races, but when is their day? The lightly raced Phenomenons, 3rd up after 413 days absence from the track, no doubt due to injury, can improve but, at this stage, we need to risk him. Now, I am hoping $1.70 or more the placewill be available about either, or both, Roman Time and Mega Steel for the place as I will be quite interested to make a wager on whichever I finally choose, at that price. If both are under $1.70 I will have a look at Broadway Belle at $2.00 the place or longer but for a lesser size bet or I may opt for a win bet. I will decide just before the race.
Across the nation on Saturday there will be several races where the favourite will also be paying about the same place price but may well be starting in a race where there might be four or five genuine chances plus similar second stringers to the ones I have mentioned in the Perth race. In those cases the $1.70 is not value compared to the $1.70 in the Perth race, as far as I am concerned, yet some punters will defy the odds and bet without considering the word "value". With the way I sort the races from easiest to most difficult I at least have a method of trying to tame the tiger called "value" and if I get the next part right, that is, the selection process I have a great, but not certain, chance of winning..