Doing the form requires decision after decision after decision. The more decisions we make the more likely we can miss something which is why keen punters have all sorts of systematic methods in place to avoid missing vital clues. With all the checks in place quite often the final A selection becomes akin to a guess, especially if the contention is close.The Golden Rose, the first Group 1 race this racing season, falls into the "guesswork" type of race as there are unknown factors to c

Doing the form requires decision after decision after decision. The more decisions we make the more likely we can miss something which is why keen punters have all sorts of systematic methods in place to avoid missing vital clues. With all the checks in place quite often the final A selection becomes akin to a guess, especially if the contention is close.

The Golden Rose, the first Group 1 race this racing season, falls into the "guesswork" type of race as there are unknown factors to contend with when doing the form for the event. When I did the form on the race last night I came up with one set of selections and when I tackled it again this afternoon I came up with another set of selections. In the latter set I had Hinchinbrook on top even though he is first up over 1400m whereas in the former set I had Chance Bye on top even though she has no 1400m form.

So what will I do? First thoughts are often best thoughts in life and often enough in the punting world as well therefore I am selecting Chance Bye to get a softish run on the pace just from Panipque whose defeat of Crystal Lily was no fluke with Hinchinbrook not far behind and Crystal Lily about 1.0 to 1.5 length behind my ABC selections.

As always we should look for a roughie and mine is Kudakulari at $34 based on the great run in the 1600m Champagne Stakes last campaign, as long as the track on Saturday is not too wet. As you can see I am still guessing, even with a roughie.

I am betting against the $4.20 favourite Masquerader as he gets back in the field as does Toorak Toff ($5.00) and I am not sure about Crystal Lily 2nd up at 1400m based on what looked like a slightly disappointing 1st up run. Undoubtedly all three could run the trifecta but they are not value at this stage.

As I said earlier some races are akin to a guess and this is clearly one of those races for me.