In all the racing textbooks and articles written by as many people as you want to quote there is always a chapter or section dealing with the term "value". Once the V word is mentioned virtually the next sentence decrees all punters must make up their own price line. Over the years I have attempted to unravel the secrets involved in setting prices but I have found the process one of massive frustration. Nowadays I just ask myself a simple question: "Is this price reasonably fair?&
In all the racing textbooks and articles written by as many people as you want to quote there is always a chapter or section dealing with the term "value". Once the V word is mentioned virtually the next sentence decrees all punters must make up their own price line. Over the years I have attempted to unravel the secrets involved in setting prices but I have found the process one of massive frustration. Nowadays I just ask myself a simple question: "Is this price reasonably fair?" and if the answer is yes then that will do me.
One way I use for unravelling a tough meeting is to rate the actual races by degree of difficulty and by doing this I at least have what I think is a fair comparison of all the races across the meeting. Derby Day at Flemington is acknowledged by just about every racing person as THE best day of racing in Australia and with 4 Group 1, 2 Group 2 and 3 Group 3 races on the program who is going to argue?
My rating process for the meeting goes like this. I compare Race 1 with Race 2 and Race 3 with Race 4 and so on, in pairs, bar the last three which I do as a treble looking for the race which looks the easiest form wise. Race 1 is easier than Race 2, Race 3 is easier than Race 4, Race 6 is easier than Race 5 and Race 7 is easier than Race 9 which is just easier than Race 8. I now compare the "winners" of the pairings and I find Race 3 is easier than Race 1, Race 6 is easier than 7, 8 or 9.
Eventually I have the races in this order: Race 3, Race 1, Race 6, Race 5, Race 7, Race 9, Race 8, Race 4 and Race 2. If I look at the races this way then my shortest priced assessment should be in Race 3. Looking at this race on Thursday night's Vic TAB prices (www.tab.com.au) Future Prices I see Run For Naara is quoted $2.50 favourite. I have done the form on this race and I think there are four main chances: Melito, Run For Naara, Jolie Brise and Faint Perfume with some chance to Fomalite. I have selected the favourite but I do not think 6/4 is value for a get back type and I would be wanting around the 2/1 9/4 mark. I have Melito second pick and at $5.00 (4/1) I think she is value as is Jolie Brise at $9.00 (8/1). Faint Perfume is not for me at 3/1.
My bet will probably be Melito for the place and at 6/4 and 3/1 (totaling 75% ) I would be laying the first two favourites. The next "easiest" race is Race 1 which I believe rests between Kidnapped, Bawaardi, Euphemism and The Comedian. I have also done this race and have The Comedian on top but at $2.90 I also find that too short and the value seems to be Bawaardi as I have almost zero between him and Kidnapped. If I think Run For Naara should be 9/4 ($3.20) then The Comedian should be about $4.00 (3/1) because if the two met I would think that Run For Naara would beat The Comedian by a length or so.
By the time I get to the "hardest" race, Race 2 I will probably be requiring about 7/1 plus for whatever I back and at this stage the choice is between Light Vision and Sterling Prince. This method of setting a price is not as exacting as the traditional methods set out by others but it suits me and in the finish that is what matters most as it is my money being bet. Give it a try: it might just be a good way for you as well.