Recently I have been discussing the Pensioner Staking Plan rather broadly and I promised to start logging three plans: Plan A, my selections, Plan B, a system and Plan C, Plan B selections with modifications.This weekend, however, I am off to sunny, I hope, Queensland hence I will not be selecting on line anywhere as every now and then a guy my age needs to refuel. On this basis I am going to hold back until June 13 to start this project officially when I will start Plan A again to keep it in li
Recently I have been discussing the Pensioner Staking Plan rather broadly and I promised to start logging three plans: Plan A, my selections, Plan B, a system and Plan C, Plan B selections with modifications.
This weekend, however, I am off to sunny, I hope, Queensland hence I will not be selecting on line anywhere as every now and then a guy my age needs to refuel. On this basis I am going to hold back until June 13 to start this project officially when I will start Plan A again to keep it in line with the systems plans. I am looking forward to it all.
Nevertheless I can still supply the rules of Plan B and Plan C so here they are.
PLAN B:
Rule 1: Only consider horses on the first three lines of betting in the pre post market in the Melbourne Herald Sun
Rule 2: There is no limit to the number of horses in Rule 1
Rule 3: Consider only Last Start Winners that qualify via Rule 1
Rule 4: For horses that qualify under Rule 3 the selection is the shortest priced runner
Rule 5: If there are equal priced runners the horse with the lowest barrier number becomes the selection
If there are no qualifiers for Rule 3 then apply Rule 3a which is "consider only last start second runners that qualify via Rule 1"
If there are no qualifiers for Rule 3a then apply Rule 3b which is "consider only last start third runners that qualify via Rule 1"
If we do not have a selection by now we keep applying the best last start rule until we get a selection and we always use Rule 5 to split any equals of any sort.
If after applying all of the above nothing but first starters or first up runners are left the selection is the favourite. Again, if equals split by using barrier position.
We will ALWAYS have a selection for Plan B
However, this is not the case for Plan C
PLAN C:
Rule 1: If the final selection for Plan B is first up from a spell or is a first starter there is no selection in the race
Rule2: If the final selection for Plan B is second up from a spell there is no selection in the race unless it won or was beaten 1.0 length or less.
Rule 3: If the final selection for Plan B has not raced in the last 20 days or less there is no selection in the race. It is NOT a selection if its spell date is 21 days or longer.
These rules ensure we are dealing with fit horses and also, in the long run, will provide us with some statistics worth discussing at a later stage.
I believe Plan C will outperform Plan B but by using Plan B we have a baseline to measure all other possible systems.
An obvious Plan D is to deal with only Last Start Winners and Plan E with only Last Start Seconds and so on. At this stage let's keep it simple because it is the staking plan I really want to present. After time X we will assess how things are going in all areas.
Once a selection is made we apply the $3.60 rule to decide whether the horse is a win bet or place bet. Why $3.60 you might ask? Personally, I believe the true favourites are buried in the odds range at $3.50 or less and once a horses reaches $3.60 or more it is less likely to be a true favourite. Again, the statistics down the track will tell us a story I am sure will be worth reading.
The staking plan will be presented next week when I am back from my holiday. Until then punt well.
PS
I shall send a short blog for the weekends races on Thursday evening.