Regulars of this site will soon realize I am not a big fan of 2yo racing especially with the amount of money thrown at races like the Golden Slipper in NSW, the Blue Diamond in Victoria and the Magic Millions in Queensland. All of this money entices owners and trainers to race horses that may be immature in the growth department and consequently they may well end up with horses that develop various stress fractures that inhibit normal development.Although there are always exceptions the way I fe
Regulars of this site will soon realize I am not a big fan of 2yo racing especially with the amount of money thrown at races like the Golden Slipper in NSW, the Blue Diamond in Victoria and the Magic Millions in Queensland. All of this money entices owners and trainers to race horses that may be immature in the growth department and consequently they may well end up with horses that develop various stress fractures that inhibit normal development.
Although there are always exceptions the way I feel, as a punter, is that most of the two year olds that are competitive, hence are pushed harder in training and in the actual races, become suspect punting propositions as three year olds and older. I can understand how the owners feel as they are the ones producing the cold, hard cash in the first instance in the sale yard but down the track what do they have left? The lucky ones own the winners of the main two year old races but along the way there are problems for the others.
My cry is like whistling in the wind on top of Mount Everest: I can do it as loud as I like but who is going to climb up and listen? The result is a nation where our sprinters have become competitive world class through the efforts of Choisir, Miss Andretti and Takeover Target but our staying types seem to consistently struggle. I had better lighten off or I will get started on what I think is going to happen in the Melbourne Cup in years to come. I will leave that for another time closer to the race.
In the meantime our focus heads to Rosehill where we have an expected slow track, at least, for the Golden Slipper programme. As usual on wet tracks I literally throw away the form guide and just look for serious wet trackers at or close to the level of todays competition. By this I mean a punter must go beyond just looking at the letter "w " beside the horses name. The questions that must be asked revolve around the class of horse the wet track runs you are checking occurred in. There is little use in accepting Maiden and Class 1 wet track efforts if todays race is an Open Listed or Group event as all that may have happened is that some horse had to win a race where perhaps none of the horses ended up becoming wet trackers themselves.
This is the basis I use for most of the time but racing is not always as dried and cut as that and on occasions we have to take a chance and accept that this horse looks like he is a wet tracker even though the proof is not conclusive.
In the Golden Slipper this sort of chance applies to Real Saga and Rostova who both have 3/3 Dead track wins but no slow or heavy runs at all. The only other horse with consistent dead track form is Our Joan Of Arc with 2 wins from 3 runs and her unplaced slow track run (btn 2.7L) was first up this preparation behind Horizons who beat Melito by 1.0 length. You cannot discount her chance today on a run that may have found her unfit on Feb 14 for a race like the Golden Slipper in early April.
Applying the above wet track thoughts has me entertaining Real Saga, Rostova, Our Joan Of Arc, Horizons and Melito. If you have Melito you must add Marquardt based on the Feb 14 run when finishing 1.0L behind Melito and her excellent run last Saturday.
In Race 1, the Neville Sellwood, the main question to ask is "How does Faulconbridge" handle the wet at this level?
In Race 2, the Tulloch Stakes, we have the problem of 2000m AND a wet track to consider and the same problem occurs in Race 3,the Storm Queen Stakes. Both races are for three year olds and often most have not experienced wet tracks near this level.
Although they have no serious heavy track form several of the fillies and mares in the Queen Of The Turf are quite adept in slow going with Hot Danish, Culminate (oh! my wallet - 29/1 last start but 2nd!!) and Ready To Lift all, amazingly, having 2 from 3.
In the BMW the New Zealnader Mr Tipsy is unbeaten at 5/5 at Dead to Heavy going however what class has he won in? Fiumicino has 2 from 5 in the heavy with one of those winning the AJC Derby from Ambitious General in 2007(not raced since) and the other in a Kembla Grange Maiden. Can these two match the class of Viewed and Theseo?
One of my favourite races on the Sydney calendar is the George Ryder Stakes. Normally it is a beautiful lead up race to the Doncaster plus it always boasts a top class field. This year is no exception with All Silent, Pompeii Ruler, Light Fantastic, King Mufhasa, Alamosa, Sarrera, Mentality and Whobegotyou heading the chances and let me tell you there are a couple of others in the field that could surprise. It's going to be a cracker of a race.
After the Golden Slipper we have two Listed events with Racing To Win and Mr Baritone heading the wet trackers in Race 8 while in Race 9 With A Chance (6 from 6 in the slow!! And 2 heavy track wins) and Mr Baritone (most likely will race in the Scweppervescence Stakes) looking good for the wet as is Royal Discretion with 2 from 3 in the slow.
If there isn't enough action for you in Sydney a quick look at Adelaide shows the 2500m SA Oaks is on (Sparks Fly is the highest average prizemoney earner) while in the 1800m Port Adelaide Guineas on APM Excelltastic and Reprisal lead the charge.
Wait there's more because over in Perth there are two races that look sensational and will have the locals licking their lips in anticipation (actually, that's what I am doing right now). In Race 4 the flying machine Dante's Volonte is attempting to win his 7th straight win on his way to Adelaide where he will contest the traditional lead up to the Goodwood (Set Weights and Penalties, I believe, this year) in the DS McKay later this month. In the wfa Strickland Stakes Marasco is seeking revenge off Tarzi who luckily beat him in the wfa Hyperion Stakes a fortnight ago when Marasco became caught in a zip fastener half way down the straight. Also on the programme is the $250,000 WA Oaks with Delta Gee and Admiring heading the betting. A most interesting runner is Full Moon from the Danny O'Brien camp in Victoria. She is also entered in the SA Oaks!
One of the ways to follow the punt is to hook onto what I call The Travelling Trainer. If you log onto the Australian Racing Board site late Tuesday night or sometime early Wednesday you will be able to access the nominations for races all over Australia. A study of those weights shows there are trainers who enter their horses in two different states and I have even seen three states on rare occasions. Many times you will see dual entries for the one meeting but I must admit to thinking this is far less important than observing a trainer enter horses interstate.
In Victoria Lee Freedman makes it an art form to pillage the Listed two year old and three year old races in South Australia and naturally the odd Group race there has not eluded him either. Now the main problem is at carnival times you will have several of the top trainers travelling interstate as a normal part of their yearly routine however the ones that you need to watch are those that do not do it too often and when they do they are usually very competitive no matter the class level. The likes of Mick Price is a classic example and I suspect Danny O'Brien is one to follow as well. He has won with Valedictum in Sydney and Dubai so respect his travelling visits.
In tomorrows podcast on the PPM site I will provide you with my selections and comments on the Rosehill meeting and selected other races around the country as well as highlighting some the Travelling Trainer movements I feel are worth betting on.