Punters can overdo the "what might happen" scenario to the point where far too many doubts cloud their form work. This weekend yours truly really showed how this "works" with two examples that cost me money.Earlier in the week I was quite keen on Crystal Lily's chances for the Golden Slipper until after the barrier draw, when she drew the rails, and when I read the track was going to be heavy I caved in and looked elsewhere. My theory was she would possibly become caught up o

Punters can overdo the "what might happen" scenario to the point where far too many doubts cloud their form work. This weekend yours truly really showed how this "works" with two examples that cost me money.

Earlier in the week I was quite keen on Crystal Lily's chances for the Golden Slipper until after the barrier draw, when she drew the rails, and when I read the track was going to be heavy I caved in and looked elsewhere. My theory was she would possibly become caught up on the fence in perhaps slushier conditions. You will note the word "perhaps" and "possibly" in the last sentence. This is called supposition and is based on a series of "what ifs" and actually has nothing to do with past form.

My "perhaps" and "possibly" thought processes did not stop there as I expanded this line of thinking to the Queen Of The Turf Stakes when assessing the chances of Typhoon Tracy. It was possible she might not handle the slow conditions and perhaps the 35 days break since her last start as well would be of major concern and she would be vulnerable. I also hoped she might be forced to work from her wide barrier to boot.

I was quite happy to lay Typhoon Tracy for the win and for one quarter of my win risk for the place and when she won like the champion she is I looked like a real dill. Anyhow, I just gulped and as all punters must do waited for the next race. Eventually, along came the Golden Slipper and I backed Beneteau for the place and watched Crystal Lily finish on the outside fence after an amazing shift in the straight.

After the Golden Slipper I pondered about how we punters sometimes just get too mesmerized by too many "what ifs" and in the finish outsmart ourselves. Quite often it can be as simple as stating "Who is the best horse in the race?" The answer in the Queen Of The Turf was easy enough but not so in the Golden Slipper although Crystal Lily should have been in most punters top three without too much thinking.

Yes, it was a rough day for some keen analysts but the same form students know that it is all about the end of the year and not just one day's results. I had my reasons: the sort that worry me with the short priced runners and I acted upon those doubts. My laying figures this calendar year have been more than satisfactory so the doubts have paid off in the past and all things being equal will for the rest of the year as well. No one ever said this punting game was easy but I will be there next week and "perhaps" my theories will recoup this weeks losses.