TWOWell, after Part One's dire warning came to fruition last weekend, we move on. Let's take one moment for reflection, though:All the planning of so many trainers, riders, and (worst of all for us) punters came to little when the heavens played their shocking cards. I was told that had it been anything other than the Cup, Caulfield would have been postponed. The surprising thing was that the track played as well as it did (an upgrade from 10 to 9 was rather tongue in cheek, but nonetheless welc
TWO
Well, after Part One's dire warning came to fruition last weekend, we move on. Let's take one moment for reflection, though:
All the planning of so many trainers, riders, and (worst of all for us) punters came to little when the heavens played their shocking cards. I was told that had it been anything other than the Cup, Caulfield would have been postponed. The surprising thing was that the track played as well as it did (an upgrade from 10 to 9 was rather tongue in cheek, but nonetheless welcome).
We actually came out of it all with reasonable satisfaction. Didn't make fools of ourselves with the analysis, and my personal longshot almost pulled off the unlikely. But the horses that failed to handle the conditions - what of them? How do we assess them for Flemington? How do we take (say) Bart's mares Dariana, which was hopelessly floundering at the rear, and Faint Perfume that got KO'd in the slippery conditions quite early? How do we judge Herculian Prince? Metal Bender?
The answer is, in my view, that we don't.
We ignore the Caulfield Cup, just for once, except for taking on board the quartet that ran 1-2-3-4. History says that you avoid them at your peril, regardless of all other factors. Let's allow time to regroup before we press on with our fourth episode. After all, we have the Derby before then!
Now the Cox Plate.
Funny little track this one, slightly ethereal with its special surface, tight as a drum, short straight, yet it provides a pretty even chance for all.
Talk to the spruikers, the people who just have to be right, and you'll hear universally that the race is over. 2/1 ON for So You Think, and the barrier draw hasn't even been made.
You'd have to be nuts to take those odds.
Why? Because even if you belong in that camp I just mentioned, you'll get those odds after the draw. After the final declarations are made. And with that golden guarantee of money back if scratched.
Gai doesn't believe it's all over. More Joyous is a live chance, especially if something can get the fave off the bit early and make him run.
Nor, quietly, does Mark Kavanagh. His jockey doesn't either. Their horse (Whobegotyou) has a near-unblemished record at this track. The race doesn't always go to the public elect, you know.
But it does go to good horses. Top horses.
Shoot Out is the forgotten "potential champion". He hasn't done anything to lose favour. Right barrier, right cart into the race... then he becomes a BIG chance, surely.
But yes, all in all the favourite does look the pea.
What I'm offering you here is my regular warning: there are better bets around than So You Think at $1.50.
Maybe, just maybe, as they turn at the Valley you'll scoff at this caveat. But maybe... maybe you'll be grateful you didn't sell your money cheaply.
Racing's like that.
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hoofnote:
Remember my point (made ad nauseam, I admit) about a 5/1 winner at Woop Woop paying the same as a 5/1 winner in the Cup? OK, well at Gosford on Sunday Hidden Wonder won a fillies and mares event at $6.
Her form was second at Newcastle (very close, should have won) in an excellent race, and a marvellous fourth in the Epsom (third in another stride or two).
That's right. Fourth in a Group One at Randwick, and now 3.5 over the limit at Gosford against her own sex. Nine runners.1600 metres, same as the Epsom.
To my mind that's exactly what it's all about.
The right horse in the right race on the right day and at the right price.
Gosford isn't Woop Woop, of course, but point made?
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Another hoofnote added Thursday 21:
The Cox Plate odds for anything other than the favourite are amazing. One outfit has Whobegotyou (for example) at $22, Zipping at $20, Shoot Out at $15 and More Joyous at $9. Of course this is an exchange I'm referring to, but even on the more conventional markets the odds about anything other than So You Think are remarkable.
OK, so the fave wins easily. These bets will then all lose. But this is the Cox Plate, and while good horses win the race, they are not necessarily the hot favourites... Teasing, isn't it?