Through a Glass Darkly...Today at Caulfield in the biggest race, two thirds of the field's runners resume.They haven't raced since autumn; in some cases further back than that. Most have big reputations but are getting ready for other races. And the racing papers are full of glowing reports and winning tips for some of them.Of the few genuine chances that have raced recently, only one probably has a realistic show of living with the cream that resumes.My question is: Why would any seasoned punte
Through a Glass Darkly...
Today at Caulfield in the biggest race, two thirds of the field's runners resume.
They haven't raced since autumn; in some cases further back than that. Most have big reputations but are getting ready for other races. And the racing papers are full of glowing reports and winning tips for some of them.
Of the few genuine chances that have raced recently, only one probably has a realistic show of living with the cream that resumes.
My question is:
Why would any seasoned punter bet a large amount on this race?
And then:
How can we possibly be confident, regardless of what happened in the past?
While we're at it, let's switch to Sydney.
Their biggest race (prize-wise) is a seven horse affair and more than half are first up after a spell. One is the Slipper winner, and we all know what we can say about returning Slipper winners.
Like, not much of value. That's because some become stars, and some... well... they don't.
The second biggest race in the harbour city has four, perhaps five or even six youngsters all contending for top spot. We simply don't know which one is the best of this very promising group of three year olds (or which is the most forward). The early markets think maybe the Melbourne visitor, but then he's here for the first time and first time at this track can be, indeed is, notorious.
Yet there are minor races at both venues in which the form is clear, the class is established, and likely markets are more friendly.
Where's your money going?
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