PUNTERS HAVE GOOD BRAINS... BUT SOMETIMES...I wonder how long you'll spend on assessing the Run to the Rose at the Rosehill track Saturday afternoon. Speaking for myself, I took somewhere between five and ten minutes.Then I abandoned it as totally hopeless.It's hopeless on three grounds: in the first place, any attempt to line up the top three horses (in fact the top four, if you include Karuta Queen) will be marred by lack of knowledge on any number of counts.Secondly, the early markets suggest

PUNTERS HAVE GOOD BRAINS... BUT SOMETIMES...

I wonder how long you'll spend on assessing the Run to the Rose at the Rosehill track Saturday afternoon. Speaking for myself, I took somewhere between five and ten minutes.

Then I abandoned it as totally hopeless.

It's hopeless on three grounds: in the first place, any attempt to line up the top three horses (in fact the top four, if you include Karuta Queen) will be marred by lack of knowledge on any number of counts.

Secondly, the early markets suggest that bookmakers are determined to make a killing by brainwashing the poor old punters about the incredible quality of the favourite.

Don't get me wrong, the favourite may win easily. But then, you're going to expect that aren't you, from an odds on proposition?

Thirdly, there's also the question of the barrier. I fell about laughing when I read in a major racing paper that "Glen Boss will more than make up for a fact that the horse has drawn barrier eight in a field of eight".

Remember that's over 1200 metres at Rosehill. There are probably worse places in Australia to draw the outside of the field, but I can't think of any.

Not only that, but the entire field inside him all appear to be leaders or on-pace runners. Not one of them will willingly surrender an inch to allow Boss to place the favourite anywhere nearer to the fence.

There's a scenario in which he could be five or six wide for the first two or three hundred metres. Quite possibly he could still be there as they swing into the straight, five or so hundred metres from home.

It happens.

Often.

Are you going to take odds on to find out? But wait, there's more.

Fourthly, both of the top two have black marks against their stable manners. I'm sure you know all about this, and the black marks are serious. Sure, everything's been fixed up and it can't possibly happen again.

Funny thing that, but you know I like to actually see that it's been taken care of. The only way I will see it is in a real race. As things stand, we've got one serious delinquent and one that could do with some kind of satellite tracking device.

Against this, you've got one of the fastest fillies in Australia (down at the very bottom of the field) and she'll probably be in front when they swing. It looks as though she isn't as good as first thought, but there won't want to be any shenanigans and jostling behind her, because Tommy Berry just might grab the opportunity to say au revoir as they straighten up.

My view, for what it's worth is, that the race will be a fascinating spectacle, and that any punter with something approaching a genuine racing brain will avoid having any financial interest whatsoever.

Now for other bit...

As I will advise my good friends in the next PPM, I've finally decided to retire, although I may afterwards be offered some work on a part-time basis, including perhaps this blog. For the time being, however, this is it. It's been a wonderful trip and I've met so many great friends. I'd like to think that I've been able to help punters by perhaps pointing them in the right direction at times, and to thank you all for putting up with my ramblings, week in/week out.

Tommy Berry was referred to above with regard to a very famous "till we meet again" tentative farewell, so I now say to you,

"Au Revoir, My Friends". But do say hello if our paths happen to meet, would you please?