Prepost ThinkingFurther thoughts on prepost betting on final fieldsAs I write this, the Goodwood Handicap field has been announced in its final form, and of course Takeover Target is favourite. In fact it's a $1.60 favourite, something to scare off all but the richest and the most foolhardy.I'm wondering, in the light of what I've written in the past, what opportunities, if any, this provides for you and me so far as backing any of the other eleven starters is concerned. Their prices are all dou
Prepost Thinking
Further thoughts on prepost betting on final fields
As I write this, the Goodwood Handicap field has been announced in its final form, and of course Takeover Target is favourite.
In fact it's a $1.60 favourite, something to scare off all but the richest and the most foolhardy.
I'm wondering, in the light of what I've written in the past, what opportunities, if any, this provides for you and me so far as backing any of the other eleven starters is concerned. Their prices are all double figures, and miracles do happen. After what I saw at Randwick, it's difficult to imagine anything beating this champion. However, I'm examining the other prices with a view to their "temptation level".
So that we can follow this through, and then we can have a crack at sorting it in my next blog, I'm going to nominate Diplomatic Force as a horse that might have the ability to run second or third, and with an unusual amount of luck could even win.
The champion has to turn around, after making a long journey, on a track that he's not really familiar with, under weather conditions that we can't be certain about at this stage. Well, champions do it, but the odds aren't worth our finding out. Diplomatic Force is rock-steady at $16 with every bookmaker in town including the TABs.
There are two possibilities here:
1. This price is accurate.
2. This is what the bookmakers think they can sell the horse at, when he really should be $21 or more.
My sneaking inclination is towards the second possibility: nobody wants to offer any more than he has to, in order to attract whatever business is around. However, the true picture could be that the horse is really a 20/1 chance or more, given the exceptional class of the favourite.
The option here is to wait until the day, and then take either the top course fluctuation, or one of the online bookmakers' "best of all dividends" kinds of bet, where you can get "best TAB or starting price".
There is also the option with some bookmakers of betting each way the top fluctuation, and getting a quarter the odds regardless of there being an odds-on favourite. Some bookies do it, some won't. Ask yours if you have one. While the idea of $16 to win on Diplomatic Force is not enticing, $4.75 for the place, giving a return if he runs second or third of 137%, looks much more attractive.
I'll watch it right through and then report back after the race. We know that one swallow doesn't make a summer, but I'm sure you'll be as interested as I am in the kind of price available for Diplomatic Force on the day. It's an isolated instance, but it might set some ideas in motion about prepost betting on final fields.