(Follow-up to my previous blog entry, as promised)Well, Takeover Target won the Goodwood as a champion often wins: he worried those who underestimated him and then showed how much better he was than this field.What did we all learn about the point I raised in the previous blog?It didn't matter where Diplomatic Force finished. What mattered was what was available. I'm gradually forming a view about these early prices:1. They can only work in favour of the punter with genuine short-priced horses.2
(Follow-up to my previous blog entry, as promised)
Well, Takeover Target won the Goodwood as a champion often wins: he worried those who underestimated him and then showed how much better he was than this field.
What did we all learn about the point I raised in the previous blog?
It didn't matter where Diplomatic Force finished. What mattered was what was available. I'm gradually forming a view about these early prices:
1. They can only work in favour of the punter with genuine short-priced horses.
2. Anything else will, in all likelihood, be better on at least one tote, or even at starting price.
Where's the cut-off line for the punter? I'm starting to think it might be around $4 to $5.
Diplomatic Force was $16 best anywhere but he was freely available in many places at $33 and better during the last half hour of betting. That place bet of $4.75 was way, way below what the TABs were offering (let alone the bookies, who were keen to offer "no Takeover Target" bets, ie you get the rest of the field running for you at black odds!)
I might now do some study on the advantages (if any) of taking very strong $3 to $5 chances prepost.
Remember that these prices are set AFTER the final field is declared and are subject to huge deductions, sometimes when horses you don't believe are real chances are scratched. It's a bit galling to see your bet pay less than the starting price.
This is because the bookies are betting to maybe 140 prepost, whereas when the horses jump they'll be down to around 112. That's a BIG drop!
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