áPlace Staking: Security or Financial Madness?How strong are you? How's your betting willpower?I have a pal who has not had a win bet for thirty years.He makes money at the racetrack and online, betting place only. Place singles, doubles, trebles and fourfold accumulators.He has a maximum of two bets per day and bets metropolitan only. He brought this latter restriction in when the online bookies appeared, because their dividends for out-of-town tracks are usually very restricted.He has a huge b
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Place Staking: Security or Financial Madness?
How strong are you? How's your betting willpower?
I have a pal who has not had a win bet for thirty years.
He makes money at the racetrack and online, betting place only. Place singles, doubles, trebles and fourfold accumulators.
He has a maximum of two bets per day and bets metropolitan only. He brought this latter restriction in when the online bookies appeared, because their dividends for out-of-town tracks are usually very restricted.
He has a huge bank these days but he started small. He tells me he averages nine places in ten selections. That's 90% "wins".
So, for the double he calculates on a mathematical probability basis, and the same for the trebles and the accumulator. He therefore anticipates 80% doubles, 70% trebles and a little above 60% successful accumulators.
On this basis he expects to make around 55% profit with a nice amount of safety leeway, provided he can average $1.40 per successful selection.
Of course this won't work for the impetuous, nor for most systems that depend on winners and their higher odds.
In his words, It won't work for anyone but the strongest.
I wondered how much money a punter might need to allocate to this as a safety plan IF he believed he could pick 9 from 10 places at $1.40. (Remember that in Australia a place is first, second or third). I accept that nine from ten is a difficult assignment, but patience and the cramped odds mean that a high precentage of placings is a reasonable expectation.
The thing is that the money returned needs to be enough to satisfy the time and study put in.
So I asked around amongst my friends. Many said they would suggest $100 a day ($5000 per year average) for the Saturday punter. Others said $200. Even $500. I decided this was just too eprsonal and based on too many criteria for me to try to figure, so I just hit on a figure:
$200 to place
$100 the double
$50 the treble
$50 the accumulator.
Too hot for you? Understandably but it's just a nice round figure for example. Cut off a nought in each case if you like.
With this example, each horse has $400 riding on it to place. Half is a single, so $1.40 means $280 of the $400 back in the bank, $140 on to the double, then $196 back to the bank.
Get the treble and another $137 goes in; and finally make it four in a row and we can pocket another $192.
That's around even money for the whole operation.
On my probability workout for each ten bets, you'd find a return of $6200 on your $4000.
55% as I suggested above.
Yes, it's optimistic... but so a punter should be.
We'll pick this up after the next lot of major metropolitan races. Meanwhile, see if you can find TWO fairly certain placegetters. Just two, not more, and not at sensational prices.
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