FOUR - THE HARDEST ONE OF ALL.Does it get any harder than this?Ask me a month ago, and I was confident that I had a huge chance of pulling off a long shot for the Melbourne Cup with Shoot Out or the New Zealander, Harris Tweed. A saver on Shocking more or less locked it in.Now, every time I look at this field, I just get more confused. So You Think is over the line in some people's estimation, and I'm not going to insult your intelligence by stating the obvious and explaining why this is so. But

FOUR - THE HARDEST ONE OF ALL.

Does it get any harder than this?

Ask me a month ago, and I was confident that I had a huge chance of pulling off a long shot for the Melbourne Cup with Shoot Out or the New Zealander, Harris Tweed. A saver on Shocking more or less locked it in.

Now, every time I look at this field, I just get more confused. So You Think is over the line in some people's estimation, and I'm not going to insult your intelligence by stating the obvious and explaining why this is so. But to play devil's advocate, we are dealing here with a short priced favourite, admittedly a phenomenal racehorse, that hasn't even run 1¢ miles, let alone gone over the gruelling Melbourne Cup circuit.

If this were any other race on the calendar, my advice would be simple: don't bet!

But of course you will have a bet, and I will have a bet, and so will virtually every other punter in Australia, not to mention in most other parts of the racing world. But to be as ignorant as I feel at the moment, with all the knowledge I have and the access to the databases, is embarrassing.

Americain is a good example of the kind of horse that has me at a loss to assess. That Geelong Cup win was a beauty, but then in retrospect the horse he beat, Moudre, has appeared to train off or else not stay. As Americain is one of the few horses rising in class, life isn't made any easier. Judging him on his overseas form, if my past experience in this is of any use to you, is a pretty hopeless exercise.

This goes for several of the runners. Like it or lump it, a section of the form guide has become something of a joke with this influx of visitors (if you count only the northern hemisphere horses, I think you get about 33% of the starters). You're just guessing. There have been years when horses like Oscar the Swindler have taken punters to the cleaners, but there have been others when Media Puzzle, for example, or Vintage Crop, would have paid serious attention to detail. The answer, as one of our very best race callers (Johnny Tapp) was fond of saying, is a pineapple.

And so, for the record, I'm going to stick with Shoot Out because of the price available on an each way basis and the fact that I like his classical preparation for this race.

I already have that New Zealander supported at cricket score odds, so of course I'm very hopeful, and a second placing in the Caulfield Cup is one of the best indicators you can get. I think it was Brew that ran fifth the year before his win the big one, which is what Harris Tweed did last year. Whether or not the track is upgraded on Tuesday, it will still have the give in it this year that he requires.

We could be here all day. Shocking is the outstanding staying racehorse in the field and with a better barrier he'd have come into it much more strongly than I think he does now, but we can never underestimate Michael Rodd. Mark my words, this horse can win!

And so what do you think?

Is the winner all parcelled up in that simple question? Do we indeed need to look any further?

I don't know. The answer's a pineapple. The very best of luck, however you travel.

And remember, (you know what's going to come next, don't you?), this is ONE RACE in the many thousands that will be run this season. Don't put yourself in hock trying to find the winner of perhaps the most difficult race that it's possible to imagine.