A NEEDLE IN A HAYSTACK.

A NEEDLE IN A HAYSTACKI made the rash promise earlier this week that we would get together for a consideration of the immediate upcoming big races. I never expected anything quite as difficult as the Saturday and Sunday programs that we find in front of us. Furthermore, the Turnbull Stakes on Sunday could quite possibly create more problems than it solves, since there is only one major prize and a couple of minor prizes, and seven or eight runners for whom success is absolutely vital.Even at thi

A NEEDLE IN A HAYSTACK

I made the rash promise earlier this week that we would get together for a consideration of the immediate upcoming big races. I never expected anything quite as difficult as the Saturday and Sunday programs that we find in front of us. Furthermore, the Turnbull Stakes on Sunday could quite possibly create more problems than it solves, since there is only one major prize and a couple of minor prizes, and seven or eight runners for whom success is absolutely vital.

Even at this stage, I'm looking towards a long, in-depth discussion/analysis on Sunday evening with Brian Blackwell, because we have to prepare our traditional Cups Analysis for the November issue of PPM. That should be quite a phone call!

Saturday at Randwick will see no fewer than ten races. We'll have four group ones, two group twos, a group three and three listed events (sometimes referred to as group four). That's a heck of a program.

On paper, you'd reckon that the first two group ones are just about the easiest chances of taking home the maximum prize that many of these horses are ever going to get. Without offending anybody, I hardly fell overboard with enthusiasm when I looked at the fields for both the three year old fillies and the three year old open race. Set weights don't do anything to help. At the risk of putting my head on the chopping block I can make two comments and to be honest, that's the end of it.

My first observation is that nothing in either race should be at a short price, and my second suggestion is that both races are unbetable. Just my opinion, and you're entitled to risk your money, but not mine.

The Metropolitan throws up an equally difficult challenge. Take out last Saturday's race, notoriously a poor guide anyway for this one, and you're left with Herculian Prince as a lay down misere. Unfortunately, the odds are unlikely to reflect the uneasiness associated with supporting the horse. I speak as somebody who speculated on him at $81.00 for the Melbourne Cup. I truly don't know what to think, although, like you, I've read all about him getting his tongue over the bit and so forth. I hope he wins by four lengths, but it won't be with any of my money, because the odds I'd need simply won't be there.

As to the others, we have horses such as Mr. Charlie, about which we don't know enough in Australia (or this way around), Crabs, which has been doing well enough in much lesser class in the south, Hawk Island, which I perhaps wrongly need to be convinced about as a group one contender, and Mourayan, with Michael Rodd coming along for the trip and probably a live chance. Count Encosta will win one day. I had hoped it would be derby day, but you probably remember what he managed to that afternoon.

So all in all, I can't see how you could end up backing anything in the Metropolitan with any degree of confidence. If something is backed off the board and wins by a street, I can wear it. Not with my money though.

Hot Danish and Vintedge get me in the final two races. Forget any mansion you were planning to build with the proceeds from Hot Danish, because you'll be looking at something like bank interest on your bet. On the other hand, that's probably as good as it gets all day. But Vintedge certainly impressed me last start and this race looks made to measure. I can't predict what the bookmakers think about it at this stage, but it's one of the few opportunities during the afternoon that I'll be keeping a very close watch on (if I can last that long!). This leaves us with only one race, the Epsom.

Through my pocket, I have Trusting at $15.00 and I'm more than happy with that. I seriously think he can win. But I'm afraid those odds won't happen anymore, and probably like you, the number of times I've beaten the price and been beaten by the race doesn't bear thinking about. So I'll just sit on the fence there. I thought that some of the grizzles re the non acceptance of Drumbeats were spoken through the pocket, because the trainer made it perfectly clear all week that he did not want the horse to run in the race. He obviously got his way and frankly, anybody that backed the horse anywhere between Saturday night and Wednesday morning defied all the racing gods.

Neeson has done most everything right, as has the up and coming Captain Sonador which ran a beauty last weekend. I was a little bit surprised to find Dealer Principal accepting, but he's a class act when right. The ones at the very top of the weights take on most of its history, but on the other hand their "handicapper ratings" suggest that they are right up to it. Danleigh is indisputably the best horse in the field, but oh that weight! As you see, confusion heaps upon confusion to create monstrous difficulty.

You've even got a few roughies with genuine chances: recent runs of Cannonball and Sacred Orders got them into my diary with some very positive notations.

Awkward? In my view, they are two days on which to tread very lightly. It's possible that we may be able to answer a lot of questions on Monday morning. We may also be assisted by race qualifying requirements for the Melbourne carnival, since several of the contenders could be kissing goodbye to their chances by simply not qualifying for their targets.

So, in a nutshell, let's fall back on our "watchful waiting" policy. Nothing risky this weekend, just a huge education which could well provide us with a much greater reward in the next four or five weeks.