History says that Shamus Award has to do something not yet achieved if he is to win Saturday’s Australian Guineas at Flemington. Never has the winner of the Cox Plate, which Shamus Award famously won last October, returned later in their three-year-old season to win the 1600-metre Group 1.
But history might not tell the entire story. Only one Cox Plate winner has run in the Guineas, Savabeel, who finished seventh behind Al Maher in the 2005 Guineas.
The only other three-year-olds to win the Cox Plate since the Guineas was inaugurated in 1986 are Octagonal, who campaigned exclusively in Sydney in the second half of his three-year-old season, and So You Think, who was initially set for the Guineas but had his campaign aborted before it began.
But the Danny O’Brien-trained colt does have a more established trend to defy if he is to win the $500,000 event off his first-up placing in the Orr Stakes.
All but four of the 28 Guineas winners came off a top-two finish at their previous outing, including 16 last-start winners.
There are two last-start winners in this year’s Guineas, Hucklebuck and Thunder Fantasy, while Eurozone – who split Shamus Award and Moment of Change in the Orr Stakes – Prince Harada, Rock Hero and Artie’s Shore are the last-start runners-up in the race.
Hucklebuck and Thunder Fantasy won the two races that feature most prominently as a Guineas lead-up and it is the Group 2 Autumn Stakes (1400m), which Thunder Fantasy won at Caulfield on 8 February, that boasts the slightly better record.
The Guineas has undergone some timeslot changes since reverting to 1600m in 2001, after being run over 2000m for three years, but Form Focus stats reveal that 18 Autumn Stakes winners have run in the Guineas for five wins.
Twenty-one winners of the C.S. Hayes Stakes (1400m), which Hucklebuck won on 15 February, have run in the Guineas for four victories.
That victory promoted Hucklebuck to favouritism with TAB, but starting punters’ elect has not been an advantage in recent years.
Up to 2008 only Kenny’s Best Pal – who won at $11 in 1993 – won at longer than $8, including 10 wins by the favourite. But a favourite hasn’t won since Light Fantastic ($2.60, 2008) and three of the past five winners have started $17 or longer.
What is in the leading contenders’ favour is their starting positions. Eurozone drew gate five, Hucklebuck eight and Shamus Award nine and only Mosheen – who started from gate 16 in 2012 – has won from a double-digit barrier.
The most successful of the single-figure alleys are two (the barrier Bardem will start from on Saturday) and seven (Prince Harada), which have supplied six winners each.
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