Previously we looked at the different levels of favouritism and how they performed. This month we’ll look at TAB or saddlecloth numbers to see if we can fathom their affiliation with Lady Luck by following their performance.

In handicap races, TAB number one is the one the handicapper considers has the best chance. Consequently, he penalises it with a higher weight. Each horse in the balance of the field is weighted in accordance with his perception of its past performance.


If he were 100 per cent right in this, and all the horses performed as he considered most likely, they would all dead-heat for first place. The fact that this hasn’t happened yet is an indication that this isn’t a perfect world in which we live.

?In the following figures, do not get confused if the total of the percentages adds up to more or less than 100. The reason for this is that while there were 660 races in total, there were not always 660 of a particular TAB number running. For example, take number ten – not every race had that many horses entered to run or it may have been scratched.

In 660 races with 7,363 runners, numbers one through to ten had the following win strikes: 98, 85, 82, 72, 61, 60, 41, 36, 31 and 25. These gave strike rates of: 16 per cent, 14 per cent, 14 per cent, 12 per cent, 10 per cent, 10 per cent, 7 per cent, 7 per cent, 6 per cent and 5 per cent.

The average dividends were: $4.90, $6.50, $6.70, $7.30, $7.30, $7.70, $7.50, $11.50, $12.00 and $10.60. Not one of the numbers was profitable with losses ranging from $224.60 for number ten down to $32.90 for number three.

These resulted in losses on turnover of 46 per cent down to 6 per cent. Number seven, with a loss of $195.70 or 46 per cent on turnover was one of the two worst performing numbers.

These results didn’t turn out too well so it seems that following any particular TAB number in every race might not be the way to make a fortune. Previously, in trying to improve returns, we found that betting on races where the first favourite was paying between two dollars and three dollars inclusive, showed a profit.

By applying this limitation to the ten TAB numbers, we find there were 262 races with 2,752 horses and win strikes of: 44, 37, 29, 34, 26, 28, 15, 12, 10 and 4. The strike rates were: 18 per cent, 16 per cent, 12 per cent, 15 per cent, 11 per cent, 12 per cent, 7 per cent, 6 per cent, 5 per cent and 4 per cent.

Average dividends were: $4.80, $4.80, $5.10, $7.20, $6.80, $7.20, $7.20, $13.40, $13.60 and $8.80. Only two of the numbers were profitable. The better one was six showing a profit of $32.80 or 12.5 per cent profit on turnover, while four showed a profit of $12.10 or 5 per cent. Once again, number seven was far from promising with a loss of $108.10 or 50 per cent. It’s beginning to look like following a particular TAB number isn’t such a good idea.

One other angle considered previously was betting in races with 10, 11 or 12 runners. When this approach was used, there were 269 races with 2,967 runners and these win strikes: 46, 33, 27, 27, 29, 26, 22, 9, 12 and 14.

These produced strike rates of: 19 per cent, 14 per cent, 11 per cent, 11 per cent, 12 per cent, 10 per cent, 9 per cent, 4 per cent, 5 per cent and 6 per cent.

None of the numbers were profitable and losses ranged from $168.10 or 72 per cent for number eight, down to $4.60 or 2 per cent for number six. There was no improvement in going down that track either. Once again, following a particular TAB number seems to be really letting us down.

Now we’ll consider metropolitan tracks only. This time we find there were 304 races with 3,525 runners with these win strikes: 40, 40, 41, 38, 26, 31, 17, 13, 13 and 8. Strike rates were: 14 per cent, 14 per cent, 15 per cent, 13 per cent, 9 per cent, 11 per cent, 7 per cent, 6 per cent, 5 per cent and 4 per cent.

Average dividends were: $5.30, $7.10, $7.10, $8.00, $6.30, $7.20, $8.70, $10.10, $12.70 and $7.70. At last we are rewarded with a profit. Numbers three and four show profits of $22.10 and $22.30 respectively with each giving profits on turnover of 8 per cent. While that’s not really enough to get excited about, it’s better than a loss.

The others lost between $166.50 for number ten down to $51.00 for number six. Oh, I nearly missed number two, it made a profit of 60 cents.

?Next, we’ll take a look at the non-metro tracks. There were 356 races with 3,842 runners and win strikes of: 58, 45, 41, 34, 35, 29, 24, 20, 48 and 17. Strike rates were 18 per cent, 14 per cent, 13 per cent, 11 per cent, 11 per cent, 9 per cent, 8 per cent, 7 per cent, 7 per cent and 6 per cent.

Average dividends were: $4.70, $5.60, $6.40, $6.60, $8.10, $8.20, $6.70, $12.60, $11.60 and $12.00. Once more, none of the numbers was profitable and so another angle bites the dust.

Summing up, it appears that there was no way that betting on one particular TAB number would have been profitable to any great extent. Betting on number four in races where the first favourite was paying between two and three dollars inclusive, gave a 5 per cent profit on turnover. Betting on numbers three and four on metropolitan tracks, gave an 8 per cent profit on turnover.

Apart from metropolitan tracks, the handicapper’s preferred horses, (number one) won more races than any other number. Sadly, this didn’t result in profitable returns from betting on it.

Well, that rather knocks a hole in the concept of following lucky numbers and making a fortune. As most punters probably lose money in varying amounts every year, even a profit of 5 or 8 per cent would be an improvement.

Oh, wait a minute there is one angle we haven’t looked into yet and that is betting in races with seven or less runners. In this case we find that there were only 59 races with 377 horses to contend with which gave these win strikes: 11, 12, 9, 13, 9, 2, 0, 1, 1 and 1. Strike rates were: 21 per cent, 21 per cent, 18 per cent, 25 per cent, 18 per cent, 4 per cent, 0 per cent, 6 per cent, 11 per cent and 17 per cent.

Average dividends were: $3.00, $3.90, $5.50, $4.20, $8.50, $3.20, $0.00, $15.00, $13.80 and $8.40. At last we have found an angle that produces a reasonable profit.

Betting on TAB number five in races with seven runners or less seemed ?to be the preferred angle here as it gave a profit of $25.40 or 50 per cent profit on turnover. That is the best profit we have seen to date. Numbers nine and ten also showed profits of $4.80 and $2.40 or 53 per cent and 40 per cent respectively. Number seven? Forget about it!

By Mr Money

PRACTICAL PUNTING – JANUARY 2007