It's always an absorbing talking point in racing to discuss 'where' the winners come from in a race. How many horses lead all the way? How many come from the first few on the turn? How many come from the rear of the field?

This topic was highlighted recently by the Ausrace discussion group on the Internet. Statistics were produced by a contributor, EJM from Melbourne, relating to the value of pace and the advantage front-runners have.


The stats covered some 2247 races and were split into the following categories:

  • ON PACE WINNERS: 1st to 4th on settling and 1st to 4th at the 400m/turn.
  • MIDFIELD WINNERS: 5th to 8th on settling, and 5th to 8th at the 400m / turn.
  • BACKMARKER WINNERS: 9th or worse on settling and same at 400m / turn.
  • HANDY (1) WINNERS: Settled midfield (5th to 8th) and on pace (1st to 4th) at 400m/ turn.
  • HANDY (2) WINNERS: Settled on pace (1st to 4th) and midfield (5th to 8th) at 400m /turn.
  • TACTICAL (1) WINNERS: Settled back (9th or worse) and on pace (1st to 4th) at 400m/ turn.
  • TACTICAL (2) WINNERS: Settled back (9th or worse) and midfield (5th to 8th) at 400m /turn.
  • TACTICAL (3) WINNERS: Settled midfield (5th to 8th) and 9th or worse at 400m / turn.
  • TACTICAL (4) WINNERS: Settled on pace (1st to 4th) and 9th or worse at 400m /turn.

These various factors produced the following results from the 2247 races:

  • On Pace winners: 1130 (50.3%).
  • Midfield winners: 428 (19%).
  • Backmarker winners: 149 (6.6%).
  • Handy (1) winners: 259 (11.5%).
  • Handy (2) winners: 58 (2.6%).
  • Tactical (1) winners: 42 (1.9%).
  • Tactical (2) winners: 154 (6.9%).
  • Tactical (3) winners: 27 (1.2%).
  • Tactical (4) winners: 0 (0.0%).

EJM then did a further analysis which showed the following statistics:

  • Winners that led all the way: 296 (13.2%).
  • Winners that were 1st/2nd on settling and led at the 400m /turn: 383(17%).
  • Winners that were 1st/2nd on settling and were 2nd on the turn: 200(8.9%).

The total for these winners is 879 or 39.1 per cent of the races in the test.

EJM writes: "So, over 50 per cent of winners come from on pace runners; that is, those horses racing in the first four all the way, with nearly 40 per cent of winners actually leading or running 2nd all the way. In my opinion, this is a clear indication of where the astute punter should look when doing his or her form analysis."

He added to his statistics the details of the 'representative' aspect of the test relating to the number of winners in relation to the number of runners. The following are the statistics:

  • On pace runners: 31.5% to winners 50.3%.
  • Midfield runners: 22.6% to winners 19%.
  • Backmarker runners: 19.5% to winners 6.6%.
  • Handy (1) runners: 8.2% to winners 11.5%.
  • Handy (2) runners: 5.9% to winners 2.6%.
  • Tactical (1) runners: 1.5% to winners 1.9%.
  • Tactical (2) runners: 6.5% to winners 6.9%.
  • Tactical (3) runners: 4% to winners 1.2%.
  • Tactical (4) runners: 0.7% to winners 0.0%.

by Brian Blackwell

PRACTICAL PUNTING - DECEMBER 1997