This page will be devoted to the performances of clear cut (no equal) favourites on both Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan tracks. All CCF, both Midweek and Saturdays, will be dissected for PPM readers under a range of conditions which will include jockeys, trainers, distances and spell dates. Over the course of a year these aspects of the favourites will be updated to provide a better understanding of their performances. This month I will be concentrating on  clear cut favourites in Sydney from August 1, 2008 to December 31, 2008.

The statistics show overall there were 333 CCF (Clear Cut Favourites: No Equals) for 108 winners or 32.43 per cent winners. The overall loss is 61.95 units which equals a massive loss on turnover (LOT) of 18.60 per cent.

However, there is light down one tunnel and that is for favourites at Saturday only meetings. Their figures show 162 runners for 59 winners (36.41 per cent) returning  $150.95 or a LOT of 6.82 per cent. A quick flick of the calculator shows betting midweek in Sydney is a disaster area for the average punter. For 161 bets there were  49 winners (30.43 per cent) returning a miserable 120.1 units or a LOT of 25.40 per cent.

If we take various sections of the figures we will note that at Odds On there were 21 runners midweek for nine winners (42.85 per cent) but the return was a miserly 14.6 units or an abominable 30.47 per cent LOT. Now, admittedly, there were only 21 runners and statistically it’s unfair to sack betting odds on favourites midweek but there has to be quite a dramatic turnaround in the next few months to have the loss seem a fraction more respectable. The odds on favourites on Saturday only meetings fared significantly better with 28 runners for 15 winners (53.57 per cent) and a loss of 3.75 units or 13.39 per cent LOT.

The cumulative columns show from Odds on to $2.10 midweek there 39 runners and amazingly for the Saturday only meetings there were the same number of runners.

The difference is that on midweek meetings there was a loss of 8 units while on Saturdays the loss was 0.45 units. If we extend this from Odds On to 3.20 we find the Midweek CCF have 111 runners for 99.7 returns and the Saturday CCF’s have 108 starters for 108.55 returns. Where the wheels fall off for the Midweekers is in the $3.50 to $3.70 range where there was one miserable winner from 26 runners. Naturally, this is an aberration but at the moment they are the stats.

I am purposely sidestepping the $3.50 to $3.70 favourites in both Midweek and Saturday figures to point out the figures for the $4.00 or longer CCF.

The midweekers had 24 runners for four winners (25 per cent) returning $16.70 for an LOT of 30.41 per cent while the Saturday statistics showed there were 27 runners for five winners (18.51 per cent) and returning  an LOT of 22.22 per cent. It does not seem to matter which way you look at the statistics – the message is clearly one that decrees “do not bet on midweek favourites”.

Naturally, if that is the case then there must be a case for backing non-favourites midweek but that is not the brief I am researching in these pages.

However, in all fairness,  I must admit to having seen figures like this before in other statistical studies I have done with similar inconclusive sample figures and at times there have been quite dramatic swings that have redressed themselves quite substantially.

The broad statistics I have tendered in this article will be updated in a few issues time and it will be most interesting to see how the $3.50 to $3.70 group fares at the midweekers for starters. I will also be interested to see how many Odds On favourites there are in Melbourne compared to Sydney. Without having done any  preliminary study on the Melbourne events, I would be quite surprised if there were anywhere near as many odds on favourites, percentage wise, down South.

Odds Range Runners Winners Returns Runners Winners Returns
  Midweek Midweek Midweek Saturday Saturday Saturday
1.3 to 1.5
5
4
5.9
10
8
11.55
1.55 to 1.7
11
4
6.8
4
1
1.7
1.8 to 1.9
5
1
1.9
14
6
11
2.0 to 2.1
18
8
16.4
11
7
14.3
2.2 to 2.3
19
9
20.3
11
5
11.2
2.5 to 2.6 16 6 13.4 19 6 15.2
2.7 to 2.8 14 6 16.4 18 6 16.2
3.0 to 3.2 23 6 18.6 21
9
27.4
3.5 to 3.7 26 1 3.7    27 6 21.4
4.0 to 4.2 18 3 12.2 9 3 12
4.5 to 4.8 6
1
4.5
14
2
9
5.0 to 6.5 0
0
0
4
0
0
  161
49
120.1
162
59
150.95

Click here to read Part 2.
Click here to read Part 3.
Click here to read Part 4.

By Roman Kozlovski

PRACTICAL PUNTING – MAY 2009