Get ready for the latest stats on favs
HOTPOT HORROR

In the May P.P.M. we brought you the results of a survey in Britain into the performances of favourites in handicap and non handicap races. In this article, P.P.M. editor Brian Blackwell takes a look at favourites in four States. The statistics are from the prestigious Ratings Bureau in Sydney.

The heading with this article is 'Hotpots Horror' and anyone to make money betting on favourites will probably agree that it sums up the situation quite adequately. It is hard to make money from backing the favs.

We have traversed the problem before in the magazine, and the general conclusion has been that if you are to have a chance of beating the favs then you must weed out the false favourites. That, as we all know, is easier said than done.

Following my article in the May issue, the Ratings Bureau in Sydney drew on its vast databank of results to provide the full figures for all Classes of races on the metropolitan tracks in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide, to discover which could have provided punters with some form of profit.

The test year was from May 1, 1994 to the end of April this year a pretty fair test. But we did split the survey into three groupings: (a) Handicaps and non-handicaps with fields up to and including 9 runners, (b) handicaps and non handicaps with fields of 10 to 14 runners, and (c) handicaps and non-handicaps where the favourite had had its last start within the previous 7 days.

Looking at the overall scene, of the four States (Saturday meetings only) the best performing 'Classes' in the small fields were the Restricted 1 and 2s, which showed a return for every dollar invested of $1.20 at level stakes. In other words, a 20 per cent profit. This was achieved from 61 races, of which 25 were won by the favourite, a generous win strike of 41 per cent.

The next best in the small fields was Open Handicaps up to 1400m, which returned $1.13 with 10 winners from 23 bets. This is a 43.5 per cent win strike, well above the accepted average for favourites of around 28 to 30 per cent.

In 3yo handicaps in the small fields, the return was $1.02 from 29 winners in 68 races, a strike rate of 42.6 per cent. All other Classes lost.

In the small fields, weight-for-age races returned only 0.61c for each dollar invested, with 3 winners from 10 races. Set Weight races, 48 in all, had 19 winners (39.6 per cent strike rate) but could return only 0.81c for each dollar bet.

In fields of 10 to 14, the Welters showed the best returns, with a $1.13 return on each dollar invested, with 13 winners from 40 bets, a strike rate of 32.5 per cent. The 3yo handicaps had a $1.02 return again, this time from 106 races and 37 winners. All other Classes showed a loss.

For favourites which had their last start within the previous 7 days, the picture wasn't too bad. Two-year-old handicaps showed a return of $1.09 with 10 winners in 21 races, 3yo handicaps returned $1.27 with 13 winners from 31 races, Mares and Fillies-Mares races returned $1.10 with 6 winners from 18 races, Open handicaps up to 1400m returned $1.16 with 7 winners from 18 races.

In Set Weight races, there were 25 bettable favourites, of which 4 won for a return on the invested dollar of only 0.43c. There were five favourites in this category at WFA for 2 winners and a return of $1.05.

So that's the overall picture. Not a particularly bright one, and in some instances a 'horror' indeed. Now let's look at the figures State by State.

Firstly, Sydney. Surprisingly, the figures for the small-field races, up to 9 runners (inclusive), showed a $1.35 return on 41 Restricted 1 and 2 races, with 20 winners for a strike rate of 48.8 per cent, which is excellent by any stretch of the imagination. But this was the only Class in the small fields to show a positive return, in either handicaps or non-handicaps.

There was much better news regarding the performances of the favs in fields with 10 to 14 runners. Profits were returned in 2yo. handicaps ($1.12), Restricted 1 and 2 ($1.02), Mares/Fillies & Mares ($1.42), Welters ($1.33) and weightfor-age ($1.24).

But before we get too excited, it has to be admitted that in the case of the Mares there were only 14 eligible races, so this is probably not a large enough base on which to find any overall pattern. There were 24 Welters for 9 winners (37.5 per cent) so this could be more reliable. The WFA races totalled only 9 for four winners (44.4 per cent).

For favourites which had their last start in the previous 7 days, it was all bad news. But there were not many qualifying races so we cannot take any significant note of this area.

Turning to Melbourne: In the small fields, 3yo. handicaps performed well, returning $1.17 from 14 winners out of 31 races, a strike rate of 45.2 per cent. In 2yo. handicaps, with 11 bettable races, there were 6 winners and a return of $1.11. All other Classes showed losses.

In fields with 10 to 14 starters, there were small profits on 2yo. handicaps ($1.04), and Open handicaps up to 1400m ($1.09). The rest made losses. The only Classes with enough bettable races in the 7-day last-start area were 3yo. handicaps ($1.47 on 15 races and 8 winners) and Open handicaps from 1400m upwards ($1.08 on 13 races and 4 winners).

In Brisbane, there were more 'Other handicaps' run on Saturdays; these comprise races like Maidens and the Class 6s. Interestingly, they did rather well. There were 21 of these races for 10 winners (47.6 per cent) and a return of $1.44.

In Open handicaps up to 1400m, there were 8 bettable races for 5 winners and a return of $1.63, but again the base total is not large enough to get too excited about.

In fields with 10 to 14 runners, the only Classes with more than 20 bettable races were 2yo. handicaps (return 0.67c from 21 races), Restricted 1 and 2 ($1.25 on 31 races and 13 winners), Open handicaps over 1400m (0.81c from 22 races and 5 winners), and Other handicaps (87 races for 23 winners and a break-even $1 return).

As for favourites having a run within the previous 7 days, there were profits but not enough races to get a decent guide, except for Other handicaps (29 runs for 8 winners and a $1.17 return).

The Adelaide figures were disappointing. Only 3yo. races in the small fields had more than 20 bettable races for 9 winners from 21 races and a return of 0.97c. In fields of 10 to 14 runners, there were 45 races in the 3yo. handicap class for 17 winners and a return of $1.08.

Open handicaps showed a small profit return of $1.09 from 21 races and 7 winners. The third section, of favourites starting within 7 days, had only a handful of bettable races. In 2yo. handicaps, there was a return of $1.74 on 6 winners from 8 races.

You can see from these figures taken, remember, on a 12 months' basis - that there is scope for making profits by backing favourites but you have to tread carefully. Surprisingly, it's in the lower grade races that the best chance seems to exist, at least if we base our findings on the past 12 months.

There's also a good chance that favs in Open handicaps up to 1400m can make you money - not a lot but you could get out wit] something around the 10 to 13 cent mark every year.

** The Ratings Bureau provides a number of excellent computerised services for racing followers, including Formline Gold (form for TAB meetings available 24 hours a day without the need for a database) and Trakline (a times-based ratings method, with a Weight Ratings' option). A Hong Kong service is also available.

FULL FAYS' DETAILS FROM FOUR STATES

Please note: Starting Prices used for profit/loss analysis.

by Brian Blackwell

PRACTICAL PUNTING - JULY 1995