They say that Ballarat is the best provincial track in Victoria, if not Australia, and that may well be true. But, if latest statistics are anything to go by, Ballarat has become a graveyard for punters backing the race favourite. However, for those bettors who steered away from the hotpots and backed the next horse in the market the story was a little different - decent profits at level stakes!
We put five top provincial tracks to the test in the six months up to the end of October in a bid to discover how the best-fancied horses performed. The tracks were Hawkesbury, Kembla Grange, Gosford, Bendigo and Ballarat.
The bombshell result came from Ballarat. In 71 races contested there, the top favourite won only 11 times, a pathetic strike rate of just 15.49 per cent, about half that which can usually be expected from favourites heading the market.
Yet second favs had 'a ball' at those Ballarat meetings, notching 20 wins from the 71 races, a strike rate of just over 28 per cent. On bookies' prices the second favourites made a profit of 39.08 per cent on turnover at level stakes, while the NSW TAB dividends showed a profit of 37.75 per cent on turnover.
As for the No 1 favourites, they lost 50.20 per cent at SP and 46.62 per cent on the TAB - a real shocker of a result.
If we look down to the third and fourth favourites at those Ballarat meetings, we see that they made, respectively, losses of 8.45 per cent and 4.93 per cent at SP prices, but made profits of 6.48 per cent and 11.41 per cent respectively on the NSW TAB.
The strike rate of the top four horses in the betting in the 71 races was 50 wins, or 70 per cent, which seems not bad at all. What it really means is that from 284 bets there were 50 winners, an actual strike rate of 17.6 per cent (not so good!).
At Kembla Grange, NSW, a total of 158 races was considered in the test period to the end of October. The top favourites produced 42 winners for a loss on level stakes at SP of 10.94 per cent, and a loss of 12.53 per cent on NSW TAB dividends.
Second favourites won 29 of the 154 races and showed losses at level stakes of 14.12 per cent (SP) and 11.30 per cent (TAB), while third favourites, with 24 wins, registered losses of 8.44 per cent (SP) and 0.45 per cent (TAB). Happily, fourth favourites showed small profits with 20 winners, cleaning up 5.19 per cent at SP and 15.26 per cent (TAB).
The Gosford results were good for punters. In 80 races, the top favs won 39 times, an amazing strike rate of 48.75 per cent! Rarely can a racetrack produce a result like this and I wonder if the Gosford hotpots' winning run will continue?
The profit at level stakes on the 80 races was 29.56 per cent (SP) and 26.25 per cent (TAB). Second favourites at Gosford suffered in comparison with the No 1 public choices. They scored only 12 wins, a strike rate of 15 per cent, for losses of 45.00 per cent (SP) and 40.75 per cent (TAB).
In all, the top four favs at Gosford produced 69 winners, a strike rate overall of 86 per cent. Taking into account all the bets (4 per race), that would be a total of 320 bets for 69 winners, an actual strike rate of. 21.5 per cent. This isn't too bad.
The Hawkesbury results showed a total of 85 races from the meetings covered for 25 winners from the No 1 favourites, a pretty good strike rate of 29.41 per cent, yet not good enough to show a profit at either SP or TAB. The losses respectively were 11.35 per cent and 16.35 per cent.
Second favs won 16 races, third favs got home in 10 races while the fourth favs struck 13 times (15.29 per cent). This was good enough for the fourth favs to show a profit at SP of 35.88 per cent and 54 per cent on NSW TAB divs.
Finally to Victoria again, and a look at the Bendigo track, where top favs scored 16 times from 51 races, a most respectable strike rate of 31.37 per cent.
There was a profit at SP of 11.61 per cent and 7.84 per cent on NSW TAB divs. Between them, the first three favs at Bendigo won 31 of the 51 races, a strike rate of 60.78 per cent, but we must always remember this is the race-strike rate. The winning strike rate is 31 winners from 153 bets, or 20.2 per cent.
If we take the whole 5 tracks' total races tested, 445, we see that No 1 favs won 133, an overall strike rate of 29.88 per cent, which is more or less in line with what we have to expect from public elects, even at provincial level.
The sad point is that the overall prospect of making a profit, even a small one, is slim in the long term. Even if you were able to extract some sort of a profit it would very likely be a small one which, as time went by, would always be in peril of a wipeout from an inevitable crash of winning favs.
Looking at fourth favs, the picture on 4 of the 5 tracks shows a profit (TAB) of 15.26 per cent at Kembla Grange, a loss of 36 per cent at Gosford, a 54 per cent profit at Hawkesbury and an 11.41 per cent profit at Ballarat. (No figures were available on 4th favs at Bendigo).
These stats show that it is far more profitable to concentrate on backing 4th favs than it is bothering with the hotpots! Of course, the losing runs will be more frequent but winners will be at bigger prices.
The actual strike rate across the four tracks is a total of 390 races for 48 winners, or 12.3 per cent. You can see from this that to break even on the fourth favs each winner will need to average around the 15/2 mark.
Of course the true professional way to travel when backing favourites is to attempt to eliminate some of them from contention. What, say, if you concentrated only on favourites in certain types of races? Perhaps Opens, Welters, Mares and VUA events?
This is where the need arises for a more thorough search of the available statistics. You might find that favs in certain types of races are winning more often, and at good enough prices, to make backing them a worthwhile exercise.
As with every endeavour in which MONEY is the target, you can't cut corners. Each aspect of a statistic has to be thoroughly examined. It is only by this cautious and pragmatic approach that you can hope to eventually expose what we might call the 'missing link' in the results.
If you find that gap in the armour, you can then check back into past years. Does the statistic hold up season after season? If it does for, say, three or four years, you can be reasonably sure (though not 100 per cent sure!) that it will continue to perform in much the same manner.
The pessimists will say that nothing stays the same, and to a certain extent they are right. But when a certain factor has been tested for three to five years and maintains its viability then you can reasonably assume that it is more likely to continue to be valid than to suddenly fall flat on its face.
You might find that by checking back on Ballarat, the favourites will have fared far better in previous years. Overall, the strike rate will probably be much higher than the pitiful 11 per cent that we found in our 6-months' check.
But the tests we did should display to you the caution that must be taken. You cannot hope, in the long run, to make decent profits, from favs anyway, unless you can eliminate the FALSE favs, and concentrate your attention on the horses that DESERVE to be the public's elect.
Once you have solved this problem, you can assess whether a selection is at value odds. If it isn't, don't support it. If it is, back it. It's as easy as that.
Getting to that point is the most difficult transition of all.
HOW THE FAVS FARED AT THE TOP PROVINCIAL TRACKS
KEMBLA GRANGE
WIN BETTING ANALYSIS SUMMARY
Sel. | Order | Starts | Wins
| Win%
| SPRet$$
| SPPot%
| NTRet$$
| NTPot%
|
---|
Sel | 1 | 154 | 42 | 27.27 | 137 | -10.94 | 135 | -12.53 |
Sel | 2 | 154 | 29 | 18.83 | 132 | -14.12 | 137 | -11.30 |
Sel | 3 | 154 | 24 | 15.58 | 141 | -8.44 | 153 | -0.45 |
Sel | 4 | 154 | 20 | 12.99 | 162 | 5.19 | 178 | 15.26 |
GOSFORD
WIN BETTING ANALYSIS SUMMARY
Sel. | Order | Starts | Wins
| Win%
| SPRet$$
| SPPot%
| NTRet$$
| NTPot%
|
---|
Sel | 1 | 80 | 39 | 48.75 | 104 | 29.56 | 101 | 26.25 |
Sel | 2 | 80 | 12 | 15.00 | 44 | -45.00 | 47 | -40.75 |
Sel | 3 | 80 | 12 | 15.00 | 72 | -10.63 | 81 | 1.50 |
Sel | 4 | 80 | 6 | 7.5 | 45 | -43.75 | 51 | -36.00 |
HAWKESBURY
WIN BETTING ANALYSIS SUMMARY
Sel. | Order | Starts | Wins
| Win%
| SPRet$$
| SPPot%
| NTRet$$
| NTPot%
|
---|
Sel | 1 | 85
| 25
| 29.41
| 75
| -11.35
| 71
| -16.35
|
Sel | 2 | 85
| 16
| 18.82
| 78
| -7.94
| 82
| -4.00
|
Sel | 3 | 85
| 10
| 11.76
| 70
| -18.24
| 67
| -21.29
|
Sel | 4 | 85
| 13
| 15.29
| 116
| 35.88
| 131
| 54.00
|
BENDIGO
WIN BETTING ANALYSIS SUMMARY
Sel. | Order | Starts | Wins
| Win%
| SPRet$$
| SPPot%
| NTRet$$
| NTPot%
|
---|
Sel | 1 | 51
| 16
| 31.37
| 57
| 11.61
| 55
| 7.84
|
Sel | 2 | 51
| 9
| 17.65
| 44
| -14.71
| 43
| -16.08
|
Sel | 3 | 51
| 6
| 11.76
| 43
| -15.69
| 51
| 0.78
|
Sel | 4 | 51
| 3
| 5.88
| 20
| -61.76
| 25
| -50.39 |
BALLARAT
WIN BETTING ANALYSIS SUMMARY
Sel. | Order | Starts | Wins
| Win%
| SPRet$$
| SPPot%
| NTRet$$
| NTPot%
|
---|
Sel | 1 | 71
| 11
| 15.49
| 35
| -50.20
| 38
| -46.62
|
Sel | 2 | 71
| 20
| 28.17
| 99
| 39.08
| 98
| 37.75
|
Sel | 3 | 71
| 10
| 14.08
| 65
| -8.45
| 76
| 6.48
|
Sel | 4 | 71
| 9
| 12.68
| 68
| -4.93
| 79
| 11.41
|
LEGEND:
SP Ret indicates Starting Price return; Pot indicates Profit on turnover, NT indicates NSW Tote.
By Jon Hudson
PRACTICAL PUNTING - JANUARY 1995