When anyone mentions staking to me, I always like to remind them of the 'due bet' approach. Oh, yes, it has its critics, but I'm not among them.
To me, 'due bet' staking is the way to get everything nearly under your firm control. You know where you are going, and you know what you're in for. And, using the method I'm about to outline, you shut up shop immediately you achieve your desired profit.
Critics of the 'due bet' approach point to the fact that you can get into trouble if you strike a long run of losers. This is, in fact, completely correct. But I have a safety brake in my plan, which says you stop after six losers and start again. That puts paid to any massive build up of bets. It'll take you a while to pick up the losses, but it's the wisest course in the long run.
With this idea, you decide how much money you wish to make in a day. Let's say it was $20. Get yourself a bank of around $800, and be prepared for a long siege! With careful and sensible selection procedures you shouldn't get into any trouble at all with this plan.
One example is to bet on favourites, except when 6-4 or less. You also avoid those races where the second favourite is at 2-1 or less in the betting. If the- re are two favourites then pass up the race.
The punting procedure is simple. You want to win $20. You look at your selection's price and determine how much you need to invest to get that $20. A horse at, say, 4-1 would require a bet of $5. A horse at 5-2 would need an $8 bet (8 x 2.5 equals 20).
If your bet loses, you carry over any loss onto the next bet. So if your target was $20 and you had $8 on a 5-2 chance and it lost, then you would be seeking to win $28 on the next bet.
You can go to six losses before ruling off and starting again.
Here are some recent examples of how backing the favourites would have gone for you:
SEYMOUR
| Horse | Price | Due | Bet | Profit |
|---|
| G. Fear | 3-1 | 20 | 7 | – |
| Bar Landy | 7-4 | 27 | 16 | 28 |
Series ends, Stake 23, Return 44, Profit 21
BUNDAMBA
| Horse | Price | Due | Bet | Profit |
|---|
| Gundy Gold | 2-1 | 20 | 10
| – |
| E Crossing | 5-2 | 30 | 12 | - |
DOOMBEN
| Horse | Price | Due | Bet | Profit |
|---|
Kilpatrick
| 7-4 | 42 | 24 | – |
Jayardi
| 5-2 | 66 | 27 | 67.50 |
Series ends. Stake 73, Return 94.50 Profit 21.50.
CANTERBURY
| Horse | Price | Due | Bet | Profit |
|---|
| Great Impact | 9-4 | 20 | 9 | – |
| Even Chime | 7-2 | 29 | 9 | 31.50 |
Series ends. Stake 18, Return 40.50, Profit 22.50.
FLEMINGTON
| Horse | Price | Due | Bet | Profit |
|---|
| Hasty Dep. | 7-4 | 20 | 12 | 21.00 |
Series ends. Stake 12, Return 33, Profit 21.00.
As you can see, all series were ended pretty quickly. The Bundamba-Doomben carryover saw four bets altogether. (All other favourites were at too short prices).
You don't have to stick with backing favourites. This 'due bet' method can be applied to any selections. I chose the favourites idea just as an example.
You may like to try it on your favourite tipster's best bets. This would be a safe move. It's actually wiser to restrict yourself to only one or two bets a meeting, rather than attempt to go through the card.
The idea is an easy one to follow. Your desired profit target can be any figure you like-$10, $20, $100. But my advice is to keep it low to begin with; see how you go and, if you are striking your target regularly, then lift it by a moderate percentage.
'Due bet' wagering is favoured by many American professional punters. They take the long-term view. One point I want to stress is that you need a solid capital backing before embarking on this approach.
An angle on the play is to assume that each horse is a 4-1 chance. Irrespective of the actual odds, the bet is always one fourth of the due target. For instance, the target may have risen to $40 and the horse to be backed is 2-1, which would call for a $20 bet. However, by assuming the horse is a 4-1 chance you bet only $10.
Let's say the horse wins. You deduct $20 from the $40, which leaves $20 to be sought.
Here's an example of this 4-1 play:
| Horse | Price | Due | Bet | Profit |
|---|
| Pluto Park | 3-1 | 20 | 5 | - |
| Bingo Bill | 2-1 | 25 | 6.5 | - |
| Jump Jack | 9-4 | 31.5 | 8 | 18.00 |
To date: Stake 19.5, Return 26.00. Profit 6.5 units.
You then continue the play, seeking the rest of your $20 target, now standing at 13.5 units.
By Des GreenPRACTICAL PUNTING - MARCH 1989