3 pages of great ideas.

We all have windfall dreams. When we buy a Lotto ticket we have them. When we go into a raffle we entertain the dream - however remote it may seem - that this time (!) it will be our turn to win that luxury house on the Gold Coast, the Mercedes Benz, or even the grocery hamper at the local school fete!

The same sort of thinking applies when a punter nervously compiles an exotic bet. Will it be this trifecta that lands him a few thousand lovely bucks? Will that big double turn up a thousand or two? Will the Yankee parlay come off and rain dollars on his head?

Windfall dreams dominate the thoughts of just about everyone in some way. As racing bettors, we know better than a lot of people how impossible the dream can be to attain. Yet, we keep on slugging away.

I remember a year or two back, operating my Striker trots system, I had a run of 15 losing trifecta bets. I was getting horses that were finishing 1st and 3rd and 4th, 2nd and 3rd and 4th and so on, but I just missed out on nailing the trifecta. It was frustrating, especially because the system itself was producing winners.

But then on the 16th bet, up it came - a $1500 trifecta and I had it twice. A collect of $3000 in one go, for an outlay of only $40. I had taken The Striker top selection with the next five in rated order, and I'd taken a $2 ticket on each combination.

Suddenly that windfall was mine. After losing $600 on those previous 15 losing trifectas, I was suddenly holding an overall profit of more than $2300. It was a lovely feeling, especially as I also had the quinella 10 times and that winner in the trifecta race had been the second leg of the double!

So, all at once, my luck rained down on me. The windfall dream was alive and well and I felt refreshed and full of confidence. This is how the average punter feels when that windfall comes along. The trick, though, is to try to get them coming along many more times than once in a while.

To do this, you need a plan. In fact, probably more than one plan. It depends on how many fronts you are going to launch your assault.

In this special article, I am going to outline a number of approaches. Some involve progression betting, and even exotic all-ups. They cost varying amounts of money, from a few dollars up to, well ... a lot more. Which ones you
decide to use depends on your betting makeup. If you're a big punter, then the higher-priced plans will definitely appeal.

Firstly to quinellas and the idea of using a progression staking plan to try to capitalise on successes. My idea is that you use the selection you have made in a race and link it with the favourite. Then you adopt a set progression plan to bet these quinellas, working on the basis of 10 bets in a cycle.

You bet right through the cycle of 10 bets - win or lose along the way. So in effect, you are climbing in stakes all the time, no matter what happens during the course of the 10 bets.

The progression is: 1-1-2-2-3-3-44-5-8.

This is a total cycle bet of 33 units. If you went 9 bets without striking a quinella, you would be down 25 units. But because you are betting 8 units on the 10th bet, you would only need a quinella paying $4 to square the series. Anything above $5 would place you well in profit.

Then there is the approach of the Duo-Quin plan, which means you roll over any money collected from a quinella into a quinella in the next race, or your next quinella planned.

Let's say you box 3 horses in a quinella ($3) and you strike a $12 quinella. This is then used to fund your next quinella on an all-up basis. You again have a 3-horse box, but this time you have $4 on each combination.

All you stand to lose, really, is your initial $3. If the second quinella is landed, you get it four times. Let's say it's a little one, $7, that means a $28 collect. By striking twice with the all-up you have turned the initial $3 into $28.

Betting in $10 units, it looks sweet: $30 transformed into $280. And that's only with two reasonable quinella collects of $12 and $7, an average of $9.50.

Trifectas can offer you the real chance of MASSIVE windfall dividends. It all depends on your skill and judgement in selecting winners and placegetters - and your good sense in placing those selections in the right order.

The Big Strike Plan is one I have used myself for some years, usually saving it for Saturday meetings, and major races. I like to pick the best races but ones with lots of runners. I do this because I am interested in landing big money returns. That windfall strategy again!

THE BIG STRIKE PLAN

  1. Pick your races carefully. Bet at the city meetings, or major provincial meetings. Look for races with at least 14 runners.
  2. You look for three key selections, as follows:
    (a) Your own selection.

    (b) Horse with the highest PLACE strike rate.

    (c) Horse with the highest average prize money earnings.These are your three 'big strike' horses.
  3. Link them in the following manner:
    (a) A 3-horse box for $6 (assuming you bet in $1 units).

    (b) Take them to win and run 2nd and 3rd, with five others to run 3rd. That is a 3x3x8 linkup, costing $36 (or $18 for 50c units).

    (c) Use one of the main three selections as your super-banker and link it in a combination with the other two, using the super banker to win and the other two to run 2nd and 3rd. This will cost only $2 (using $1 units).

    (d) If you can bet exactas, take the super-banker horse to win with the other two to run 2nd in exactas, I again a $2 bet using $1 units.

    (e) Start a Twin-Tri Bet by boxing the top three again for $6. In the event of a return on the bet, use all the proceeds to rollover to your next trifecta. If the trifecta pays $60, you then take the next box trifecta for a total of $60, or each box of 3 is taken 10 times. If you strike the trifecta in the following race, you will have got it 10 times for that initial $6 outlay. The return could well be hundreds, if not thousands of dollars.

Here we have a staking approach that can return a great deal of money should it come off. The
outlay is as follows:

(a) $6 (b) $36 (c) $2 (d) $2 (e) $6. That's a total of $52. Or, if you bet 50 cent units,
$26. To cover betting on, say, three races a day that's an outlay of $156 or $78.

Most punters would turn over those amounts in the course of a day, so it should not be beyond
the pockets of all.

You could, of course, scale back to just two races a day. That's quite enough really with large-scale exotic bets like these.

The Twin-Tri is a beauty if you can land it. Just imagine your first trifecta gets up and pays, say, $160. You now put that all on the next box, which means you can bet that box for 26 times!

Even if your trifecta on the second leg paid only, say, $60 you would get that 26 times - a return of $1500. Not bad for an initial outlay of only $6!

Finally, another trifecta plan that calls on you to collate a number of selections to produce your selections, and then frame them into a 4x5x6 combination, an outlay of $64 for $1 and $32 for 50 cent units. Quite a sizeable outlay but one that could repay you very well indeed.

THE ULTIMATE WINDFALL PLAN

  1. Operate on ONE race per meeting/per day. Choose a race with at least 12 runners (excluding 2yo and 3yo races).
  2. The selections are made as follows:
    (a) The pre-race favourite in the morning newspaper betting market.
    (b) The horse with the HIGHEST place strike rate.
    (c) The first last-start winner going down the field.
    (d) TAB number 1.

    These comprise your four 'key' selections. If there is a dual crossover, then choose the next horse in line. On favouritism, go to the second favourite. On place strike rates, go to the horse with the second highest strike rate. With the last-start winner, go to the next one down and if there isn't one take the first horse down the field with a last-start 2nd. If Number 1 is crossed over, then take No 2.
  3. For the fifth horse, you choose the first horse in the tipsters' poll that is not already included in your first four key selections.
  4. For the sixth selection, you take a runner which is being ridden by a leading jockey. Go through your initial 5 selections and cross them off, then look for another horse with that GOOD rider aboard.
  5. Link the selections in a 4x5x6 combination. That means you have your four key horses to win and run 2nd and 3rd, you have the fifth selection to run 2nd and 3rd, and the 6th selection to run 3rd only.
  6. If a return is gained on the trifecta, half of the dividend is retained in the pocket. The remainder is played up on the next 4x5x6 combination. So, if you have, say, $100 remaining, you can take the combination several times for 50 cent units.

If you land two trifectas in a row, you are in the money. If you land the first one, you are still way ahead even with a moderate return.

THE FIELD APPROACH
Be very careful with 'field' bets. Sometimes it can be a sensible bet; at other times it contains an element of madness in that you are losing value on the bet by throwing in horses that haven't got a prayer of getting into the money.

Punters often take 'field' doubles. They'll pick out a prime bet in one leg and link it with the field in the second leg. They HOPE that an outsider will win the second leg. Most times it doesn't and the payoff is poor.

I think it's always best to try to trim a field down by at least a few runners. The odds are that you will generally be okay by doing this, though the odd one or two smokies might slip under your guard.

When you do take a 'field' bet, try to ensure there are not more than 12 runners - at the very most 13 or 14.

The following is a plan I have drawn up which should enable you to strike some good returns. 

It is split into trifectas and doubles.

THE TRIFECTA FIELD PLAN

  1. Use your own selection as a banker.
  2. Add the pre-race favourite or the horse with No 1 saddlecloth whichever appeals the most. If you cannot decide, use the one which had its last start at the most recent date.
  3. Use your main selection as the standout to win. Use the fav or the No 1 to run 2nd - then wheel the 'field' to run 3rd.
  4. Then take the reverse: The fav or No 1 to win, your selection to run 2nd, and the 'field' for 3rd.

With a field limit of 12 the maximum cost for this bet would be $20 (using $1 units).

THE DOUBLES FIELD PLAN

  1. Concentrate on one double per day.
  2. The selection in either leg is a SECOND favourite which is to be ridden by a LEADING jockey. You can choose this banker in the first or second leg of the double.
  3. Couple the banker with the top 5 in the betting in the other leg for 1 unit each. Then couple the rest of the field with the banker for 2 units each.

The cost for this bet, assuming a 12 horse field, will be $5 for the linkup with the top 5 in the betting, and another $12 for the remainder of the field. The idea is to capitalise on a win by an unfancied runner in the second leg.

By Rick Roberts

PRACTICAL PUNTING - MAY 1996