For many years now, the trifecta has been the "thrill kill" bet for Australia's legion of horse-racing punters. Frankly, we love it.
It offers one of the few chances for a big payout for a small outlay.
Now, though, the First 4 is the exotic bet that's starting to lure the speculation gamblers. You have to hit the first four placegetters in the right order, which means it's a trifecta PLUS one! And that spells TOUGH.
The fact that it's a daunting assignment isn't stopping Aussie punters from throwing their money at it. The First 4 is becoming more and more popular, and in the past year it's been made available on many more races than in the past.
Finding a suitable method of staking to actually land the First 4 is just as tough as sorting out the main contenders from the formlines.
In fact, like a lot of things in racing, the management of "how you bet" is vitally important in the First 4. This is because the cost of linking a lot of selections can prove very expensive.
For example, boxing six selections costs $360, seven horses costs $840 and eight horses ... well, now you are in the realm of the big bettors and you'd be coughing up $1680. Far too much for the average punter.
So Mr and Mrs Average Punter must come up with strategies that give them a fighting chance of pulling in some of the sizzling dividends that are often paid for First 4 successes.
US expert Barry Meadow has made a deep study of the First 4 (or the superfecta as it's known in America) and he warns: "The superfecta, hitting the first four horses in order, isn't easy. It can be lucrative, but you can also throw away a tremendous amount of money trying to cash in."
I'm a great believer in the "banker" approach to the First 4. That means selecting one horse to win, and no others to win, and then filling up the rest of the three places with as many horses as you can afford. But with this you must pick the right races-
I like to stick to all the major handicaps, especially races like the Epsom, the Doncaster, the Toorak, and, of course, the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups.
Meadow thinks along the same lines. Writing in his excellent Racing Monthly newsletter in April last year, he said: "As in most bets, you need to either key on somebody, or key against somebody
"In addition, to make the ticket work without a zillion-dollar investment, you also will probably have to insist that something else MUST happen, and possibly several something-else’s."
What he means is that if you "banker" one horse to win, then you'll also have to insist that at least one, and possibly two other horses, finished somewhere in the top four. And, as well, you'll have to KICK OUT three, four, five or even six horses from your ticket altogether!
The reason is that costs mount up very quickly. The "box" bet is a no-no, for the reasons I've already outlined. Too costly.
Barry Meadow's advice is as follows: "Before playing . . . ask several questions:
- Can you leave out either the favourite or the second choice?
- Are there longshots you can use, keying them to run 3rd or 4th (a longshot is much more likely to run 3rd or 4th than he is to win)?
- Can you leave several horses out altogether?
- Is there a pace scenario that might put several horses with a particular style into the First 4 (whether a slow pace which will favour the rateable front-speed types, or an exceptionally fast pace which will kill all the speed)?"
Meadow advises, and I agree with him, that the time to play the First 4 bet is when there's a discrepancy between your opinion and that of the "betting crowd" (the other punters!). Leaving out a heavily fancied horse can give you a tremendous advantage.
Meadow adds: "Conversely, if the First 4 looks as if it will be comprised of nothing but obvious horses ... pass it and wait for better opportunities.
"If you like a longshot, you can use the First 4 as a betting option. Since longshots are far more likely to run 3rd or 4th than to win, you can key your longshot to run 3rd or 4th. Of course, you still don't want your ticket with the three favourites running 1-2-3, so you'll still have to do further separating."
What about some examples, then, of how to go about landing a First 4? I'm a great believer in shooting for the winner with one horse. The banker.
If I can narrow the likely 2nd placers into two selections I am happy enough to make them the "bankers" for 2nd place, and then carry them over for 3rd and 4th as well. I will then add up to five horses for the 3rd and 4th places in the race.
This bet costs $60 ($1 units). It's a hard bet to land, and usually I will only use a one-horse banker to win if the horse is going to be at a good price. I never key a favourite for the win. Usually, the favourite winning tends to kill the dividend.
Another way to go with a banker to win is to use three horses to fill 2nd, 3rd and 4th, and add another two horses for the 3rd and 4th places, and a further one extra horse to run 4th. This makes up a combination as follows:
A-BCD-BCDEF-BCDEFG.
This is a $48 bet. The multiplication to work out how much your bet will cost would be as follows: 1 x 3 x 4 x 4 equalling 48. That is, 48 separate combinations, with your "A" horse needing to win and any of BCD to run 2nd.
Barry Meadow has his own approaches and he says: "Generally,
I'll use a number of combinations. Let's say I like No. 7 to win, and I give No. 4 and No. 9 the best chances to beat him. I also give Nos 2, 3 and 8 shots to get into the frame. My worksheet might look like this:
7 with 4-9 with 4-9 with 2-3~8
7 with 4-9 with 2-3-8 with 4-9
7 with 4-9 with 2-3-8 with 2-3-8
7 with 2-3-8 with 4-9 with 4-9
7 with 2-3-8 with 4-9 with 2-3-8
7 with 2-3-8 with 2-3-8 with 4-9
4-9 with 7 with 4-9 with 2-3-8
4-9 with 7 with 2-3-8 with 4-9
4-9 with 7 with 2-3-8 with 2-3-8.
"Note that several things have to happen for this nine-ticket, 78combination sequence to prove successful:
7 must win or run 2nd; if he runs 2nd, only 4 or 9 can beat him. 4 or 9 must finish in the top 4. 2 or 3 or 8 are the only other horses than can come in.
"Note that I said 'worksheet' and not 'tickets' because now comes the real work - eliminating the tickets, or parts of tickets, that I think might be overbet.
"Who wants a ticket with the favourites running 1-2-3-4 (in any order)? I always favour tickets where either the favourite or second choice runs OUT, or one where some big longshot runs IN.
"So at this point, I'll take these nine tickets and carefully cross out the combinations that appear likely to be overbet. I use the win odds as a guide. Exactly which combinations will go vary from race to race. Sometimes, in fact, they all have to go, usually because a couple of horses I thought might be good prices turn out to be not so.
"I don't simply bet $1 on all the tickets. I might bet $7 on the one I like best, $5 on the next pair, $3 on the next, etc. The possibilities are endless."
While First 4s can pay big, punters have to realise that the divvies are hard to score. Somehow, no matter how well you do the form, there will always be a Smokey jumping up off the ground to ruin your well-reasoned linkups. Anyone who has played trifectas knows this only too well, so imagine how worse the problem is when you are attempting to nail the first FOUR runners in order?
Barry Meadow says: "Sure, it can pay enormously, but most of the time it doesn't come in, or when it does it doesn't pay what it should. Some of it is due to the high takeout grabbed by many tracks (in the USA).
"I don't bet many First 4s. They're hard to hit and require a big outlay of cash. Each First 4 requires a precise strategy, so there's no all-encompassing plan that's suited to all races.
"Overall, my advice is this:
- Don't play unless there's a reason to;
- Key rather than box;
- Look to get at least one lowpriced horse OUT;
- Try to get at least one highpriced horse IN."
Let's look now at some further strategies. On July 27, I had a go at the First 4 (NSW TAB) in race 8 at the Moonee Valley meeting. I had been told by PPM editor Brian Blackwell that he strongly fancied Class Eulogy to win, and he suggested it was a good race to try a First 4 bet as his selection was likely to pay 7/1 or 8/1 for the win.
I didn't want to expend too much money on the bet because I was happy enough with my usual largish win bet on the tip. So I decided to slot in some good-priced types for 2nd and 3rd and one or two more for 4th.
Because I like the selections of Ken Penney in Best Bets, I decided to throw in his three selections for 2nd, 3rd and 4th. These were Aldarch, Wannaway and Dedicated Miss. I was happy enough to rely on these three to run 2nd. For the third slot I added the well-fancied Victorix, and for 4th I added Be My Princess and Pukahina.
My bet then was:
Class Eulogy to win.
Aldarch, Wannaway, Dedicated Miss to run 2nd.
These three plus Victorix to run 3rd.
These four plus Be My Princess and Pukahina to run 4th.
The bet cost $36. The outcome? Well, Class Eulogy won so that was fine. Wannaway ran 2nd. Great! Aldarch ran 3rd. Fantastic! But that 4th placing? Alas, I missed out. The outsider Splash Of Love got into 4th, and the dividend for the First 4 was a massive $10,030.
Frankly, I missed out because I had been too niggardly with the bet. I should have fattened up the 4th placing horses. But, even then, could I have thrown in Splash Of Love?
She'd run 6th of 7 at Caulfield at her last start on July 20, beaten some 4.4 lengths. She had a low win-strike rate but at least she had a 44 per cent place-strike rate.
Maybe, if I had been persuaded by the trainer factor I might have thrown her in; she's trained by Dan O'Sullivan of the Aquanita team.
Finally some other strategies to consider:
USE TWO HORSES ON TOP, EXPAND FURTHER ($160)
AB with ABCDE with ABCDEF with ABCDEFGH
KEY TWO LONGSHOTS IN FOURTH POSITION ($72)
ABC with ABCDE with ABCDE with FG.
Finally, the A-B approach in those races where you are super confident you can nail 1st and 2nd in single selections. You can then throw in any number of selections to run 3rd and 4th.
A to win from B with seven horses to run 3rd and 4th will cost only $42. If you get A and B right, then you should be able to land 3rd and 4th, even if you have to go to $90 with 10 horses for the minor slots.
By Alan Jacobs
PRACTICAL PUNTING - SEPTEMBER 2002