The key to successful punting lies not only in picking winners and backing them-but in backing them properly. I've tried to stress this vital message from the first issue of P.P.M. Hopefully, some of you have heeded it.
In this article, I am presenting you with five staking plans that have tremendous merit. Study them carefully, see if they can be applied to your own betting approach, and then check them out 'on paper' before committing any money. You have to be certain in your own mind that the staking methods tie in exactly with what you want out of your betting.
THE LOSING CYCLE METHOD
This method was devised with the simple, but important, objective in mind of stopping long sequences of losers being backed. Now, no matter how good your selection method might be, the time will come when it will strike a horror run of outs. Don't kid yourself that it can never happen to you. A friend of mine, who considers himself an expert, recently backed 20 losers in a row. He could not believe it had happened, but it had, and he had to get used to the idea that he was not infallible.
The one weakness of this method is that four consecutive short losing runs of six or more losers will break it. They would combine to give the same effect as one long one. It's highly unlikely, however, that any selection method would cop one losing trot after another. These losing runs do tend to come in cycles, and when a run of outs is broken yo can reasonably expect that a run of winners will follow.
Now, when operating this staking method, you can use your own tips or those of anyone else. You follow your first five bets by backing them according to the 'recovery method' of staking-that is, to win so much per race, plus losses, with the amount bet on each race being regulated by the price of the selection.
If, after five races, no winner has been selected you do not make any more money wagers until the method being used strikes a winner. You merely look on until the winner arrives. As soon as a winner is struck, you start betting again to win back, at the first winner, all losses incurred over the first losing cycle of five, plus the desired profit for each race.
If, after five more races, no further winner is selected, stop again and await another winner. In this manner, if-say-30 consecutive losers are given then you will have backed only five of them.
THE PERCENTAGE PROGRESSION PLANThis is a nice one for those punters not afraid of progression betting. Many progression plans are mathematically unsound. In unit play, for example, the progression is not consistent. In this type of play, you increase the wager one unit after a loser. If the unit is $2, the play increases to $4, $6, $8 and $10, etc. This means the original progression from $2 to $4 is 100 per cent, then from $4 to $6 it is 50 per cent, from $6 to $8 the progression is 33 per cent and from $8 to $10 it's 25 per cent. So you are going down in the percentages as you increase your bet. That's unsound.
Progressive bets should increase by the same percentage. In this way, you are throwing percentage against the tote. In the following table, the amount to be bet increases 25 per cent each time and the new figure is rounded off to the nearest dollar.
Progression of 25 per cent should be used only with selections that give you a high percentage of winners. Place bets on horses picked to win are the best. For bets on selections that give fewer winners you should use a 10 per cent progression.
Your 25 per cent progression bets will look like this (rounded off):
$6$8-$9-$12-$15-$18-$23$29-$36-$45-$56-$70-$87.
Here is a recent theoretical rundown, using place bets with selections from Banker Weekly's Special Situation and Banker Bets on August 22:
LADY LINDLUM - 2nd 6-1
Bet $6 Return (tote) $16.80
BENGAL CHARGER - Lost
Bet $6 Return Nil
COOL DEAL - 3rd 15-1
Bet $8 Return (tote) $18.80
HANDSOME PAL - 2nd 2-1
Bet $8 Return (tote) $12.80
LATEST WORD - Lost
Bet $8 Return Nil
Next bet would be $9.
Totals: Stake $36 Return $48.40. Profit on day: $12.40.
Note that when betting, I recommend you do not drop back after a winner, you continue up after a loser and then stay at that point until another loser and then upgrade again.
FAVOURITE PLACE PLANI recommend this little staking plan for those punters who are content to make steady profits but not necessarily massive ones. It's a nice method to use as a sidebar to your main betting activities.
What you do is follow favourites from meeting to meeting. The opening bet is one unit on the place tote in the first race of the meeting at which you commence operation. If this is placed then all is well. The bet is repeated for the next meeting-one unit a place on the favourite in the first race.
Should this favourite be beaten and run unplaced, then at the next meeting you have one unit a place on the favourite in the first and one unit a place on the favourite in the second race. If the nett result is not profitable the next meeting's bets would be a one unit place bet on the favourites in the first, second and third races.
Whether this triple bet is profitable or not you revert to the normal bet the next meeting (just a one unit place on the favourite in the first). You can, if you wish, back the favourites for a win.
THE HOTPOT TREBLE This method requires an outlay of seven units per eight-race programme. All you are trying to do is cash in on winning streaks by favourites. The idea is to back the favourites on an all-up basis. You stop betting for the meeting if three in a row are successful.
On an eight-event programme, the most you can lose is seven units. There will be times when you have a wipeout for sure. Sometimes the last two favourites will score and give you a profit. There are many meetings throughout the season when three successive favourites come up.
A further extension of this idea would be to chase winning doubles with the favourites in each race. You would have many good strikes.
THE SAFE INSURANCE PLANMy idea with this plan is to provide you with a staking idea that gives you the chance of good returns, and yet provides a key element of insurance against big losses. Thus the nameThe Safe Insurance Plan.
You first decide on a bank, then you bet to a percentage of it split into 25 per cent for a win and 75 per cent for a place. So, let's say your bank is $40 and you were betting to 25 per cent of it. Your first bet would be $10 split into $2.50 a win and $7.50 a place. The bank amount is up to you. It can be $20, $40 or $1,000. Your pocket decides.
If, for example, you have a 200 units bank and decide you want to bet to a percentage of 5 per cent of it. That makes your opening bet 10 units, split into 2.5 for a win and 7.5 a place. At a 10 per cent level, the bet would have been 20 units, split 5 for a win and 15 a place.
As your place investment is always three times that of your win bet, you have plenty of insurance going for you. Every time your bank is doubled you withdraw the profit and start again with your original bank. This is sensible betting.
Let's have a look at a recent example, using the tips of John Greensill of Truth at Moonee Valley on August 22.
By Statsman
PRACTICAL PUNTING - OCTOBER 1988