Rain. There may be bigger issues in racing but I can't think of one. Remember Guys And Dolls, and that famous line from the Fugue for Tinhorns:

"Of course it all depends if it rained last night." He has the horse right here, he says, it's a cert ... but of course, if it rained, well, all bets are off.

When confronted with a wet track, you have to ask a series of questions. The questions aren't so hard to pose, it's the answers that get in the way of your success. Some of the questions go like this, with the answers (or some sort of attempt at answers) below each question.

HOW WET IS IT?
Is the track dead, slow, very slow, heavy, or absolutely drenched and boggy?

You can get a clue from a gadget called the penetrometer, which is inserted into the ground to ascertain the state of the surface where it is dug in.

If it reads around 6 points, there's a problem for us. It could be very soft underfoot, or bordering on heavy, depending on the track (see later). A reading between 5 and 6 suggests slow tracks, 4 and over is good, if a bit deadish towards the high end, and below 4 is fastish.

No more certain than that?

No. Sometimes I have been bewildered by the readings, with the exception that if the reading is up around 6, the ground will be heavy. That means the horses who do not handle wet conditions will not race well that day on that track.

At least not in the first few races!

Dead surfaces mean all horses, except a handful who need lightning-hard tracks, can race OK. Horses who have no wet-track form are often quite acceptable bets on dead ground. Dead has the sting out of it. It can assist dry-trackers who also have tender tootsies.

Slow is the first real grade of wet tracks. If a club tells you their racing surface is "dead to slow", believe the latter. They lose money on slow meetings, and if they can get away with a dead reading they will sometimes try it on. A slow track is one where the horses have to get through rain-affected going.

Remember how much harder it is to run in a swimming pool and you'll get the picture. It's harder to pick your feet up. Now think of a situation where you've been at the beach in the surf, and your feet keep sinking into the sand below, being sort of dragged down in a tow. Now you are a stage further.

The difficulty is immense, and many horses will not, or cannot, run as fast in these conditions. By the way, remember that horses cannot run FASTER in the wet. Some don't run as SLOWLY as others, and they are the ones we term wet-trackers.

HOW CAN I RELATE THE CURRENT WET TRACK TO THOSE OF RECENT TIMES?
By practice, which leads to experience. The more wet tracks you experience, the better you become at sensing what the rain does to the tracks and thus the racehorses. If possible, find a big screen on which to view a wet-track meeting, but don't watch the horses.

Watch their feet.

You will see the muck kicked up. You will see those behind getting it in the eyes, nostrils, etc., and the riders tearing off their goggles as they try to stay alive. Sometimes, the riders wear several pairs of goggles and dispense with each pair as it gets fogged-up or mud-spattered.

If you limit your betting to two or three cities, there will be about 10 tracks you have to be familiar with. For example, Melbourne has four quite individual tracks, the subject of much analysis. There is no way a wet Flemington compares with a wet Moonee Valley.

HOW DOES THIS TRACK STAND UP TO THE WET?
Following on from above, some tracks are better than others. I find Rosehill a nightmare when it's wet, whereas it seems that the new Randwick track is a marvel of modern science. Moonee Valley copes better than Flemington, which can be hopelessly lopsided in its straight races.

There will often be guesswork, but if you want to be a wet-track bettor you have to form opinions as to the different tracks and their abilities to stand up to the weather. Observation may take out the guesswork by the halfway mark in a programme.

WHAT HAPPENS TO THIS TRACK WHEN IT IS WET?
Today's track is the one you are interested in right now. From the above, we have to know what happens to this track.

The moveable rail is vital here. Sometimes it is out a long way, and the advantage is usually with the on-pace runners, although the surface can get chopped up by mid-afternoon and give the swoopers the upper hand.

If the rail is not out at all, you may have to forget the on-pacers, as they may compound in the straight, racing on a used surface. However, if it is the case that the rail had been out all week prior to the meeting, and no horses had been near that section, they may be the best contenders.

Not easy, but a clue in the puzzle.

HOW MUCH RAIN IS NEEDED TO DOWNGRADE THIS TRACK?
Know that and you are a long way ahead. If the rain starts up at, say, one o'clock, and gets heavier, the best advice is to stop betting, as the one thing you cannot do is assess the track from many kilometres away without any real guidance.

Sure, the callers will tell you the race times but, if it is still raining, those times refer to a race where the horses were chopping up the ground, so the next race may be much slower.

WHAT HAPPENS TO THIS TRACK IF THE SUN COMES OUT?
This is a humdinger.

Sometimes the track bakes quickly and sometimes it sets like glue. If the track is heavy at the start, then is reassessed as slow, maybe a handful of horses will qualify for a rethink. If it is then reassessed as dead, beware!

There will be patches of uneven ground, and with my luck I would strike one! You might too, so when a serious regrading takes place mid-programme, be on your guard.

WHICH RIDERS ARE FAMILIAR WITH THIS TRACK WHEN IT IS WET?
Go for the home base here. Ignore visitors. If you want the twentieth century's classic example, go back to the 1992 Caulfield and Melbourne Cups. Great as the visiting rider was, he made mistakes. Two of the best Victorian
riders in the past ten years won the double.

WHICH HORSES CAN HANDLE WET TRACKS?
If a horse has not won on slow going, do not assume it can. Same for heavy tracks.

Not foolproof, but better than most ways.

WHICH HORSES CAN HANDLE THIS WET TRACK?
Seek out a T, or better still a C, or a TD, next to the horse's name. At least he is capable of winning on this track. Don't trust an M or a W for the wet; look in the formguide. An M or W can mean a win, as a two-year-old, against Uncle foe's horse Radish at some unheard-of place in the Great Australian Desert.

Find out if the horse has ever run here in wet conditions and what he did. If he has form at a slightly longer distance, this may be a clue to his ability in these conditions, as today's race will be more difficult.

HOW MUCH FURTHER IS EACH RACE, NOW THAT THE TRACK IS WET?
This follows on from the last answer. If the horse has never won past 1200m, and today's race is over 1200m in heavy going, I would be worried about him in the final stages. Ask for a winning margin of an extra 100m for sprinters and 200m to 300m for stayers.

SHOULD I STOP BETTING FOR THE DAY?
Well, will you take any notice of what I say here? Sometimes, a race shouts out to you, wet or dry. Use your head, not your heart. A wet-tracker with no recent form, at 40/1, is sometimes worth a dollar on a track that is demonstrably causing trouble to the favourites. These longshots win often enough to remain a temptation.

By The Optimist

PRACTICAL PUNTING - JUNE 1998