For several months in this magazine I have been outlining the rules and qualification factors that I apply to my very successful betting.

Some short notes on just four more factors and the list will be complete.

The important thing about these components is that they relate to my staking plan.

As I wrote at the outset, the basis of good betting is a good staking plan and I don't believe in progressive plans,  where stakes are increased as losing runs continue. They are a ticket to the Poor House.

The selections that my plan provides me with would almost certainly make me a winner no matter what kind of  staking plan I used - it would even supply a handsome profit at level stakes. 

But I use what I think is a very commonsense plan, based on the strength of the selection. 

A selection with everything in its favour draws 10 per cent of my bank. As impediments to its success arise, the percentage that is bet falls. It can become as little as 1 per cent.  The following factors have an effect on my staking plan.

This comonent is as important as any used in the earlier eliminations. Only the fact that it involves personal opinion causes it to appear so far down in the listing of criteria. 

We all have differing opinions about who is a 'top' jockey. While it's hard to argue that a rider whose name  appears among the top 6 or 8 on the jockeys' performance table doesn't deserve to be there, it is easy to argue  that one (or more) who is not on it deserves to be. 

So, assessment of a jockey's ability is a subjective decision. We will all vary in our opinion. It is an area which might make your end result marginally different to mine.

I penalise riders I classify as grade 2 by deducting 2 per cent from my stake. For grade 3 riders, I deduct 4 per  cent. 

Again, this is a subjective decision. It's wise to try to become aware of really successful trainers from provincial and country areas too those who do not come to the city very regularly, but who often make their presence felt when  they do.

Grade 2 trainers reduce my betting stake by 2 per cent, grade 3 reduce it by 4 per cent.

I dislike backing horses which race back in the field, so I penalise them in my staking plan. I take an average of  their position on the home turn from their latest 8 starts. You can use the Wizard to do this, but will find that the  position is recorded only for metropolitan runs. You can take an average from the number of runs which are shown,  but I use Sportsman for this, as it provides running positions for all provincial races.

Any horse which averages between 6th and 7th causes a 4 per cent reduction in my stake. A figure above 7 earns  a 10 per cent reduction, which means it is automatically eliminated.

I believe that horses which have been racing in peak form at their latest three or four performances are, more  often than not, risky bets. If the handicapper has not caught up with them, exertion probably has.

I delete from further consideration any runner whose form includes more than 3 wins, or 2 wins and a 2nd, from its latest 4 starts.

I outlined the basic selection rule for fillies and mares in October's PPM. In my staking plan I penalise fillies and  mares who hive qualified in mixed fields 1 percentage point. and fillies against mares (in fillies' and mares' races),  until the end of April, 1 per cent also.

My complete list of staking plan penalties appears at the end of my article.

So, there you have it in its entirety - a form study method that will come up with plenty of winners, many of them  at the kind of odds that are needed to keep you rolling along very merrily - and a staking plan based on potential performance of the horse, not on unrelated events of the past.

As I wrote in the May issue of PPM - and as its results since that date (shown at right) indicate - it is based on  consistent reliability in three areas: 

  • Reliability in undertaking your process of selection
  • Reliability in executing your investment strategy
  • Reliability in the results you achieve

I hope you find it as rewarding as I have.

Eliminate any horse with 3 wins or 2 wins and a 2nd at latest 4 starts.

Eliminate any horse which has earned 2 crosses or more from a combination of the rules outlined in previous  issues, or has a 'very slow' home-turn penalty.

(3 points clear at outset)10
(2 clear at outset) 9
(3 clear when others eliminated)9
(2 clear when others eliminated) 8
(Less than 2 clear, anytime) 7
(No others left after eliminations) 6
(when others remain below) 5
Up In Weight (on rating) more than 2kg 2
Back in distance 200m or more in 14 days 3
Distance Fail 2
Course Fail2
Conditions Fail 3
Prizemoney Fail 2
Slow Home Turn (6.1-7.0) 10
Jockey (grade 2, grade 3)2,4
Trainer (grade 2, grade 3) 2,4
Filly/mare in mixed field 1
Filly against mares until May 1st 1

Click here to read Part 9.
Click here to read Part 8.
Click here to read Part 7.
Click here to read Part 6.
Click here to read Part 5.
Click here to read Part 4.
Click here to read Part 3.
Click here to read Part 2.
Click here to read Part 1.

By Ben Richards