We have now come to the second-last part of this series of articles and it's time to wrap up everything and decide the final points formula.

The series began in the May PPM, and continued through June, July and August. You will need copies of these magazines in order to follow the final formula.

Those who have been following the path of the approach will now be able to determine exactly where we are headed. We have all the Factors in place.

Your first step, of course, is to decide which races to bet. These were outlined in the May and June issues. It's important you bet on the right races.

In my summary, I outlined that for metropolitan meetings you ignore all races except Open and Restricted Handicaps, Welters, Fillies and Mares, WFA and Set Weights for 2yos and 3yos; no race is considered which has 15 or more runners; no race lower than 1000m, and if the pre-race favourite is at evens or lower, then ignore the race. Also, any race restricted to apprentices is ignored.

For provincial/ country meetings, operate only on Class 5, Class 6, Welters, Fillies and Mares and Open Handicaps; ignore any race with 13 or more runners, ignore any race under 1000m, ignore any race in which the pre-race favourite is at evens or lower, plus ignore apprentice-only races.

The Ratings Guide to the various Race Classes were in the June PPM (page 15). Using these ratings, you can secure a Race Rating for each runner in any race on which you are betting.

Use 1.5kg to equal one length. The usual weight and class approach is used. That is, say, horse is beaten 2 lengths in a wfa race (Class Rating 70), meaning his rating is then 70 minus 3 equals 67, plus the weight he carried over the theoretical Limit in wfa of 50kg. If he carried 57kg, then his final rating would be 67 plus 7 equalling 74.

Don't worry about how much weight the horse is carrying over the Limit in the current race, as our various Formulas will take care of this aspect of the form analysis.

Once you have worked out each runner's Race Rating, we look at the Fitness Formula to apportion the various points that are available for each Factor.

This is an important part of the process. We want to give an edge in the formula to FIT contenders.

Then we look at Class, Ability and Form. All these were outlined in the July PPM. Finally, there are Track Conditions and Weight to take into account. These were featured in the August PPM.

Class is always a key ingredient of any selection approach. We need to satisfy ourselves that a runner is capable of competing successfully in the current class. There are two aspects to Class; the A Factor covers
race class, the B Factor takes into account Average Earnings to determine if a horse is in the top 5 rankings in a race (prizemoney is always a reliable guide to Class).

Ability is covered in three separate Factors. With this we are looking to isolate the best chances by taking into account recent form, beaten margins and starting prices.

Form is covered by win-strike rates, recent placings, betting market, tipsters' poll and jockey ability. I think you'll agree that these are pertinent factors, ones that we can never be lax about if we're to haul in a regular flow of winners.

Finally, we look at track conditions and weight. It's important that a contender is able to handle prevailing track conditions. Our points formula takes this into full account.

The formula makes it crystal clear that if a horse does not measure up on the Track Conditions and Weights area, then it's best forgotten about. We want to make the 'if' factor as slim a negative as we can.

The one point about this approach that does need to be recognised is that you will need to set aside some time to concentrate on each chosen race.

I suggest you restrict yourself to a couple of meetings a week, maybe one on Wednesday and another on  Saturday. Go through the card carefully to ensure you operate only on races which are recommended under the  rules. 

One race alone may take some half an hour to assess. However, you will be satisfied that you have made every endeavour to get it right with your analysis. Rather than skimming over the form, you will know that you have done the job in as thorough a manner as possible.

In the long run, such a dedicated approach will pay off. The selections you will achieve with my approach will, I'm  sure, provide you with a highly consistent flow of good-value winners.

Next month, in the final article in this series, I'll tell you how to compile your own set of prices on the main contenders. This will then enable you to bet to 'value' and shoot for the overlay prices.



  1. Determine which races you are going to operate on, using the details available in this article.
  2. Now work out a Race Rating for each runner, using the Ratings Guide as outlined on page 15 of the June issue of PPM.
    Factor A: Horse has had 3 runs or more this current campaign and its last start was 14 days or fewer ago - 10 PTS
    Factor B: Horse has had 3 runs or more this current campaign and its last start was between 15 and 21 days ago - 8 PTS
    Factor C: Horse has had 2 runs this campaign; last start 14 days or fewer  ago - 5 PTS Horse has had 2 runs this campaign; last start between 15 and 21 days ago - 4 PTS
  4. CLASS
    Factor A: Horse must have performed well in similar class of race to the current race - 20 PTS
    Factor B: Check average earnings; if horse is in the top 5 rankings 10 PTS
    Factor C: If horse has won in the same class within previous 28 days - 5 I PTS (these points can be added even if the horse has already qualified under A and B)
    Factor A: Last-start winners, provided you are satisfied they deserve a points award (the last start  may have been in weaker grade) 20 PTS
    Factor B: Horse has run 2nd, 3rd or 4th within 3.5 lengths of winner at  latest start within 28 days -15 PTS
    Factor C: Horse has shaped encouragingly for 5th to 8th, less than 5 lengths  from winners, when unfancied at 10/1 or longer 10 PTS 
  6. FORM
    Factor A: Win strike in excess of 40 per cent (10 runs minimum) - 25 PTS
    Factor B: Win strike 25 to 39 per cent from 10 starts or more - 20 PTS
    Factor C: Horse has shown 2 wins and 2 placings from last 5 starts, the most recent within previous 21 days - 15 PTS
    Factor D: Horse is on the top 3 lines of betting in the pre-post betting market - 5 PTS
    Factor D:
    (a) Horse is in the 3 Most Favoured in the tipsters' poll - 5 PTS
    Factor D:
    (b) Horse is to be ridden by a jockey in top 10 in the city where the race is being run (or in top 10 in provincial areas, where such meeting being held) - 5 PTS
    Factor A: Horse has the same weight as last start or is rising no more than 1kg or dropping up to 10kg - 15 PTS
    Factor B: Horse is rising in weight by 1.5 to 2.5kg on last start - 5 PTS 
    Factor A: If track is slow or heavy, horse must have won 2 or more races in such  conditions prevailing - 15 PTS
    Factor B: Any other prevailing track conditions and horse has won 2 or more in  such conditions - 15 PTS 

Add up all points scored. Horse with the highest total is rated the best chance, and so on.  Please note: Some
runners will score points for more than one factor.


Click Here to read Part 6.

Click here to read Part 4.
Click here to read Part 3.
Click here to read Part 2.
Click here to read Part 1.

By Richard Hartley Jnr