This regular page is devoted to the performances of clearcut (no equal) favourites on both Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan tracks.

Over the course of a year various aspects of favourites will be covered and updated. This month I have decided to update the clearcut Sydney favourites  from August 1, 2008 to December 31, 2008 which I detailed in the May edition to include January  1, 2009 to April 30, 2009. The extra races will provide an even better representation of the favourites’ scene in Sydney.

The overall Sydney statistics show that  for Saturdays only and midweek races, there were 632 favourites for 201 winners (31.80 per cent) and if you invested 1 unit on each you would have received returns of 555.3 for a loss of 78.7 units (12.45 per cent).

If you refer back to the May article you will notice the favourites’ scene improved dramatically from a  LOT of 18.60 per cent. A massive part of that loss revolved around the midweek favourites, where there was a deficit of 25.40 per cent on turnover.

I found this loss on turnover quite alarming but I did indicate that it would be better to wait until an update before panicking too much as the sample figure needed to be higher. In the period January to April there were 174 runners midweek for 50 winners (28.73 per cent) for returns of 148.5 units for a loss of 25.5 units or 14.65 per cent loss on turnover.

Although the loss percentage is still high it has certainly improved for the mid week favourites. Unless you are an absolute expert on Midweek racing it is quite clear you face quite an uphill battle by backing mid week favourites.
Is there any hope? Perhaps in the Odds On to $3.20 area where, in the Jan-April  time period, 211 runners provided 79 winners (37.44 per cent) for returns of 191 units (LOT 9.47 per cent). This is  a glimmer of hope appearing from what seems like a pit of darkness. It is all down hill from $3.30 onwards, however.

It is when we head to the Saturday only area of Sydney clear cut favourites (CCF) that we find there is a fair bit of sunshine around. The figures for August 01 to April 30 show we now have had 297 runners for 102 winners (34.34 per cent) and returns of 286.7 units which equates to a loss of 3.46 per cent.  Even with a small sample figure of around 300 races it is obvious Saturday only is where serious punters should concentrate. In the period January 01 to April 30, 2009 there were 135 races for 53 winners (39.25 per cent) for returns of 135.75. Yes, there was actually a profit! 

I need to mention mortgaging your house and betting around Saturday CCF’s is NOT recommended, however, if you want to start practising we certainly have found an area well worth concentrating on. Where the figures are a little distorted at present is in the $5.00=> bracket where there is a 10.5 unit profit.

Do not expect that to keep on happening because those results are exceptional. This means with more races the losses will increase and it is just a matter of waiting to see what sort of loss will actually be involved.

In the Odds On to $3.20 range for Saturdays only, we have 182 runners for 76 winners (41.75 per cent) returning 175.70 for a very small loss which is quite a difference from the midweekers. If you have a look at the $1.30 to $1.50 bracket you will note there are 11 winners from 14 runners (64.93 per cent) for a profit of 1.6 units.   Now, even though there is a profit you can see how really difficult it is to win with the extremely short priced favourites. One of the objectives I would like to reach with this study is to suggest a cut off point at the shorties end and it is starting to look like $2.20 should be the minimum but, of course, the sample figures are still quite small and when the May to July stats come in perhaps we can make a more informed decision.

Once the figures for May to July for Saturdays and the Midweekers are added to our database we will have around 1,000 races to consider and hopefully, after some serious research, we might be able to make some serious recommendations about strategies relevant to the favourites.

At this stage it is my gut feeling we will struggle with the midweekers, however, in the area of the Saturday only runners I feel with a sensible “no longer than 21 days” rule we might reduce the losses to a break square situation. Time will tell and I am looking forward to presenting the data to you.

Until then, good luck.

Odds Range Runners Winners Returns Runners Winners Returns
  Midweek Midweek Midweek Saturday Saturday Saturday
1.3 to 1.5
7 4
5.90
14
11
15.6
1.55 to 1.7
15
8
13.30
7
2
3.40
1.8 to 1.9
8
3
5.55
18
8
14.80
2.0 to 2.1
25
8
16.40
16
10
20.60
2.2 to 2.4
38
17
38.05
21
9
20.40
2.5 to 2.6 32 10 25.70 29 12 30.30
2.7 to 2.8 34 12 32.80 34 10 27.60
3.0 to 3.2 52 17 53.30 43
14
43.00
3.3 to 3.9 67 11 38.90
52 12 43.50
4.0 to 4.4 39 6 24.40 19 4 16.40
4.5 to 4.8 15
2
9.30
31
6
27.60
5.0 to 6.5 3
1
5.00
13
4
23.50
Total 335
99
268.60
297
102
286.70
Click here to read Part 1.
Click here to read Part 2.

By Roman Kozlovski

PRACTICAL PUNTING – JULY 2009