In this article, our regular contributor Denton Jardine takes a look at trifecta betting, and says there is a strong case to be made out for a 'maximum boldness' staking approach.
What is 'maximum boldness'? Well, it's the betting you undertake when you have steeled yourself to have a strong heart! In other words, instead of pussyfooting around with multiple combinations you shoot for as few linkups as possible and bet more units on them.
Let's take the average punter and the trifecta: He boxes 4 horses for $24. If any combination gets up, he wins. But he gets the trifecta dividend only once.
But what if the punter took a different angle on the same play? Let us assume that he really fancies one of those 4 horses; he thinks it will win. In fact, he's bubbling over with excitement because he fancies the horse so much.
In this instance, why not make the horse a Banker? Bearing in mind that he is still going to invest $24, the punter can now look at linking the other three fancies with the Banker. To take a Banker with 3 others to run 2nd and 3rd costs, for $1 unit, $6. But our punter, because of his boldness, can take the combination 4 times!
If we say that his Banker won and he secured the trifecta, under the box-only bet he gets a dividend of, say, $60. But with the Banker method, he picks up $240! Not a bad difference, is it?
Of course, had the Banker not won he would have been out $24. But with the great difference in returns, the punter can allow himself one or two times to miss the trifectas - because when he does land it he gets a big enough return to cover the lost divs.
Let's look at a 10-race example. If we say the punter can strike 5 of the 10 trifectas with a 4-horse box, and he gets a return of $100 each time, that would be $240 expended for a return of $500.
If we assume that betting the bankers, he gets the trifecta only twice, we see the following result: Bet $240 ' return $800 (two dividends of $100 each multiplied by four each time). He has secured that $100 dividend four times in each of the two winning races. So, by striking three races fewer than with a box, he has still finished up miles ahead, profit-wise, with the Banker bets.
With the box bets he has won $260. With the Banker bets he has won $560. And all for the same amount of money but a bit more risk.
It is quite conceivable that the punter could strike with a Banker trifecta twice every 10 bets. So the test is not an outlandish one.
Imagine if he could have struck one more trifecta with the Banker? That would have meant the following:
Bet $240, Return $1200. Profit $960. Compare that with that niggardly $260 for the cautious 'box them all' bets!
There is, then, much to be said for the maximum boldness approach. The same goes for other forms of betting, especially where doubles, trifectas and trebles are concerned.
A friend of mine in Brisbane used to bet multiple trebles. Over a year he ended up winning a total of 15 trebles at an average of $230 for $1. But he was betting multiples and each bet cost $16. He had 70 trebles at a cost of $1120. His return was $3450. Not a bad profit.
The following year he decided to bet the $16 on one treble. He struck three only, but they paid $152, $280, and $115. Thus on an outlay on 73 trebles at $16 each ($1168) he got back returns of $2432, $4480, and $1840, a total of $8752 - a massive profit of $7584.
You see how this punter, through an approach of maximum boldness, and patience, was able to lift his take enormously, even though striking only three trebles out of 73! Because he had each 16 times, the profits were huge.
What you need to adopt a betting philosophy like this is a firm belief in what you are doing. Even when the losing runs hit you, you have to maintain faith and discipline.
There's an old saying that most punters ignore when betting, and it goes like this: "Little bets Produce only little returns." You have to remember this when you get caught up in the chain-betting rigmarole at the track or the TAB shop.
What needs to be done is this: Put yourself into the position of being able to win large amounts with any bet you place. Give yourself a fighting chance of winning a big one.
By being too timid, and going for too much cover with too many bets, you are only betting against yourself. Instead of lots of multiples, save the money for a big go. In the long run, you'll be much better off.
By Denton Jardine
PRACTICAL PUNTING - AUGUST 1995