Statsman reveals an ambitious multi-bet staking plan.
The 'win lots for little' mentality is widely abroad in Australia these days, the evidence of this being the enormous sums of money being invested daily on Lotto, poker machines, scratch-it cards and lottery tickets, not to mention the millions invested on the racing exotic pools.
A few big punters make a lot of money from exotic betting. They invest large amounts on multiple combinations, taking advantage of the widespread ‘overlays' that are available in the huge quinella and trifecta pools.
The smaller punter continues to be fascinated by the exotics and while he may strike now and again, it can be a frustrating way to bet because of the long runs of outs. Different punters have different approaches. A close friend of mine likes to sort out two outsiders - preferably at 20 / 1 or longer - and link them with the favourite to run 1st, 2nd and 3rd, and then pop in an additional four horses to fill 3rd.
This gives him a 3-3-7 trifecta linkup costing $30. He also takes his top three picks for a $6 box. Recently, at Kilmore, he struck a $1904 trifecta when his two outsiders ran 1st and 2nd and the favourite ran 3rd., He got the trifecta twice!' For a total outlay of $36 his return was more than $3800.
Among the many letters I receive each week from P.P.M. readers are those asking me for ways to cash in on trifecta betting. Well, I have addressed this area of betting quite emphatically in the Whip Hand method (currently on sale from Equestrian) and the profits from it continue to be most rewarding.
For the purposes of this article, I am going to talk about an approach that combines all the elements of the 'parlay' that is, doubles, trebles and accumulators. But you won't have to invest vast amounts of money. Just $15, betting in $1 units.
This sort of financial exercise should be within the reach of even the most stretched pocket in these dire economic times. The bet can, of course, be reduced to $7.50 if you halve the unit to 50 cents.
I call this approach the 'Weekend Delight' because if it comes off - and it will, as long as your selections are sensible ones - it can deliver enormous dividends through the doubles, trebles and accumulators.
What is needed is a nice mix of well-fancied form horses, plus one or two at longer odds. This should not prove too much of a problem for any punter worth his salt. My suggestion is that you study carefully the form for one particular meeting, assess each runner in a common-sense manner (taking into account recent form, jockey, trainer, ability to handle the distance and track conditions, weight etc.) and look for the best races.
The method requires that you choose six horses in six races. That is, one selection in each of the six races. You may well decide to follow your favourite tipster, or you could stick with, say, three ruling pre-post favourites, and then the three second-favourites in the remaining races.
It depends very much on yourself. But, of course, you have to realise that choosing the horses is all-important They have to perform well if you are to indulge yourself in the promised Weekend Delight! Losers never pay, no matter how cleverly you bet them.
Having chosen your six horses, I suggest you number them 1 through to 6. I have split the bets into various groupings with the aim in mind of providing you with a set of firm guarantees. I am looking for regular returns.
Each group of bets has a definite guarantee. Two winners may produce a winning double, three winners guarantee it. Similarly, a treble is certain if four horses win and it's a possibility if only three of the six are successful. Five winners means you land a four-horse accumulator, although it can happen if you get only four winners.
Multiple winners, then, can add up to a superb array of doubles, trebles and accumulators. Naturally, should you miraculously select six winners then every one of the bets will pay off. But don't hold your breath waiting for this outcome, unless you decide to play the selections for a place only, in which case it could be quite possible for you to have a clean sweep.
Summing up, then, the Weekend Delight is what can be termed a 'balanced wager' which you can use for a crack at big payouts, without having to sacrifice the possibility of regular smaller profits. It gives the small punter the prospect of plenty of returns, and the chance of a dash of sugar and spice as well.
Okay, once you have chosen your six horses (1, 2, 3,4, 5, 6) you arrange them into the following sequence of doubles, trebles and accumulators.
DOUBLES
1/3
1/6
2/4
2/5
3/6
4/5
TREBLES
1/2/5
1/3/5
1/4/6
2/3/4
2/3/6
4/5/6
ACCUMULATORS (ALL-UPS)
1/2/3/4
1/2/5/6
3/4/5/6
As you will realise, there are 15 sets of bets. At $1 each, that makes for a -Stake of $15. Quite obviously, because of the limitations of the stake, we cannot link all the six horses together in doubles, trebles and all-ups. This would cost too much. You would have 15 doubles for a start, as well as a host of trebles and all-ups.
Cautious punters will probably prefer to bet for a place using this method, though there’s also a good case to be made out for betting a mixture of win and place. You might back three of the horses to win, the others to place.
To test out the strength of the method, let's suppose we are betting for the win only. You try it out on a Saturday, but you get only one winner. Your loss is your $15. One winner is not enough, alas! Next time, though, you strike two winners. The first is at 5/2 and the second is at 4/1. You are lucky enough to have them linked together in your doubles lineup. The return for the double is 17.5 units, giving you a profit of 2.5 units.
Well, that's not bad, but on your third try you hit three winners at 3/1 each. Let's assume they were horses 1, 2 and 5. Okay, let's look at the bets lineup: There is no linkup of horses 1 and 5 but you do have horses 2 and 5 linked in a double.
Now we look at the trebles and, yes, 1, 2 and 5 are linked together in a, treble. Your three winners, then, have provided a double and treble. The return on the double is 16 units, while the treble returns 64 units, for a total collect of 80 units. This provides you with a healthy profit of 65 units!
Had you been betting for a place, of course, there is every likelihood you would have had quite a lot of returns. I estimate you could maintain a strike rate for the place of four or five placegetters from each set of six, in which case you would be making some decent profits.
Once again, you could bet win and place on the various races, so a placegetter might be linked with a winner, and vice-versa.
Because you are limiting the coverage of the six horses, there are going to be times when the winners fall the wrong way. For instance, if horses 5 and 6 win, you'll instantly bemoan the fact they are not linked in a double! The same goes 9 with horses 1 and 2, and so on.
But being a small punter, you can't have your cake and eat it, too. Somewhere along the line, your approach has to be tempered to take account of the depth of your pocket. The Weekend Delight is one way that you shoot for the big returns and, often enough, secure them.
What if you had a wonderful day and struck four winners - 3, 4, 5 and 6. On the doubles side, you would have two doubles with 3/6 and 4/5. On the trebles, you would have 4 / 5 / 6 linked, while on the all-ups you would have 3/ 4/5/6 linked together. Wonderfulstuff. Let's assume the - winners were as follows:
The doubles are:
(Horses 3 and 6) 2 /1-4 / 1 (return 15 units),
(Horses 4 and 5) 3 / 1 - 7 / 2 (return 18 units).
The treble is:
(Horses 4, 5 and 6) 3/1 x 7/2 x 4/1 (return 90 units).
The accumulator is:
(Horses 3,4,5 and 6) 2/1 x 3/1 x 7/2 x 4/1 (return 270 units).
Total return, then, is as follows:
15 units, 18 units, 90 units and 270 units. Final total is 393 units. In dollars, that's, $393 for your outlay of $15. (Had you been betting in $10 amounts, the outlay would have been $150 for a return of $3,930.)
How can the average punter take full advantage of such an approach? Well, I designed it mainly for those special Saturday bets that the majority of punters like to take. With this approach, the off-course punter can place his/her bets in the morning and then sit back and listen to the races at home, or watch them on Sky Channel at his/ her pub or club.
The more active punters, those who go to the races, could take advantage of better prices via bookies or tote, to bet the horses race to race, though this approach is a bit shaky because many punters would not find the courage to place big bets in the event of a large treble or accumulator.
For example, let's say you had three winners arrive and you had some $400 to place on the fourth horse in an all-up? Would you have the necessary 'bottle' to put it on? If you weren't used to such big bets, the task could be beyond you.
You'd be likely to halve the bet, or even just walk away from it, preferring the birds in the hand to those not yet in the nest!
So, better to be prepared, and put the bets on all at once! That way, you are forced to go along for the ride and there's no way you can drop off when the going gets perilous and mind-blowing!
The Weekend Delight, then, is for the small punter who can only bet in limited amounts but who wants the chance to have a crack at some big returns. For $15, it gives you plenty of action and if you lose ... well, $15 is not much of a blow to take, is it? And, more to the point, the Weekend Delight provides you with enough ammunition to recoup any losses with just one successful day's punting.
By The Statsman
PRACTICAL PUNTING - SEPTEMBER 1992