Professional punters who once scoffed at quinellas as a 'serious ' method of wagering are changing their tune now that exactas are becoming the 'in thing', especially on the NSW TAB.
They say exactas are nice little earners if they are played properly. In fact, disciplined bettors can make good profits by playing exactas instead of straight win bets.
For those of you unsure of what an exacta is, it's simply a bet in which you try to pinpoint the first 2 runners home, in the CORRECT order. A quinella is a similar bet, except that your two horses (dogs) can run 1st and 2nd in any order.
An exacta is the ideal sort of bet for those races - and there are lots of them - where you have narrowed the chances down to two horses, and you fancy one a little more than you do the other one. Instead of a straight win bet, have an exacta!
Most fans prefer to pick one horse to win and then 'wheel' it with several others for the place position. Some punters I know have had success by reversing the bet - taking the other horses to win and the 'special' to run 2nd. It's a bit unorthodox but my pal Johnny Turner reckons he makes it pay - and JT is a good judge.
The reason for his success is that longer-priced winners have a tendency to pop up and the horse that places is usually that honest bloke who gives a 100 per cent effort every time. More times than not, though, these game and honest customers meet one too sharp for them on the day.
If you are keen on the exacta and reckon you can pick up some 'extra dollars' by judicial pruning of no value horses, then you might like to consider the following system.
I've called it The Exacta Gold Plan and the rules are as follows:
EXACTA GOLD PLAN
- Eliminate any horse that did not run 1st, 2nd or 3rd last start OR did not finish within 3 lengths of the winner (that is, 3 lengths or less).
- Now, looking at the remaining contenders, eliminate any which has not raced within the previous 30 days.
- Of the remaining contenders, eliminate any which have not WON or been PLACED in the first 3 at the current track.
- Of the remaining contenders, eliminate any horse which has not WON or been PLACED at the distance of the current race (and allowing 50m either side of the distance. That is, if the current race is 1400m, you can consider races in the range 1350m to 1450m).
At this point you may have only two or three contenders. You must now put them in preferential order by applying the following rule: - First preference: Horse that has WON its last start.
Second preference: Horse that had its last start within the previous 14 days.
Third preference: Horse with the BEST win strike rate.
Let's say you have three contenders left to consider. They are as follows:
HOG'S BREATH: Winner last start 12 days earlier and has a win strike of 18 per cent.
DANDY DASHER: Ran 3rd last start 16 days earlier and has a 33 per cent strike rate.
PRINCE PACKAGE: Winner last start 21 days earlier and has a win strike of 25 per cent.
In this instance, Hog's Breath and Prince Package are the first to be considered, because they are last start winners. But Hog's Breath gets the nod for the No I slot because its last start was only 12 days earlier, as against a delay of 21 days for Prince Package.
The bet, then, is to take Hog's Breath as the exacta banker, with Dandy Dasher and Prince Package to run 2nd.
The main proviso I place on the exotic betting approach is that you have a price minimum of 2/1 on the No 1 selection. If it is lower than 2/1, forget the race. It's not worth the risk to shoot for an exacta when the top spot selection is a sortie in the market.
It means everyone else is going to be in there pitching for it. The divvy will reflect that all-consuming interest by the great betting masses!
What are exacta divvies likely to pay? I can give you some idea in the following rundown:
1ST HORSE | 2nd HORSE | LIKELY DIV |
---|
5/2 | 5/2 | 9/1 |
5/2 | 3/1 | 10/1 |
5/2 | 4/1 | 12/1 |
5/2 | 6/1 | 17/1 |
5/2 | 8/1 | 22/1 |
5/2 | 10/1 | 27/1 |
3/1 | 4/1 | 15/1 |
3/1 | 6/1 | 21/1 |
3/1 | 8/1 | 26/1 |
3/1 | 10/1 | 32/1 |
4/1 | 6/1 | 27/1 |
4/1 | 8/1 | 35/1 |
4/1 | 10/1 | 43/1 |
6/1 | 8/1 | 53/1 |
6/1 | 10/1 | 65/1 |
Those of you lucky enough to have a P.P.M. Winner's Wheel for likely Exacta and Quinella dividends will be able to instantly check on the potential divvies. If not, then the above list will give you some idea of how things might work out.
Basically, it's a case of multiplying the prices. That is a 3/1 with a 10/1 would be 3 x 10 equaling 33, give or take a point.
By Jon HudsonPRACTICAL PUNTING - SEPTEMBER 1994