Last Saturday I was hoping two of my "warrior" favourites, Sir Slick and Jungle Ruler, could do the job but, alas, it was not to be. Now don't can them for both have the habit of bobbing up just when you have given up on them. Speaking about old "warriors" it was a pleasure to finally meet our own "The Optimist" for a casual 1.5 hour chat about horses, horses and horses last week opposite the lovely Lake MacQuarie. I can now vouch the photo you see in PPM is not tou
Last Saturday I was hoping two of my "warrior" favourites, Sir Slick and Jungle Ruler, could do the job but, alas, it was not to be. Now don't can them for both have the habit of bobbing up just when you have given up on them. Speaking about old "warriors" it was a pleasure to finally meet our own "The Optimist" for a casual 1.5 hour chat about horses, horses and horses last week opposite the lovely Lake MacQuarie. I can now vouch the photo you see in PPM is not touched up in anyway and despite both of us bemoaning our advancing years T.O. clearly has the advantage of good looks over my good self. We both agreed life for the value punter was once a valued 9/4 chance but these days, due to the intense media scrutiny, the odds had dropped to around 6/4 and you really had to find the gaps in the market before declaring, "I have found value". Nevertheless, we keep on doing our best.
One way of overcoming the weekly worry of value is to let value work itself out by compiling a list of horses to follow as I have been compiling in the last few weeks and set a minimum acceptable price. So far, I have had four starters from my short list for 1 win (Stryker) and two seconds (The Jackal, Gold Water) and at the $9.00 best fluctuation for Stryker I am mathematically in front quite a nice distance. If I had done the form on the race Stryker won I may well have had Graceful Anna on top and missed an 8/1 winner, especially considering Stryker's wide barrier.. I have to say the $2.25 about Graceful Anna was a bit on the tight side, just the same. Where, I believe, you can get value on each way chances, such as Stryker, is by actually not doing the form and just backing them as long as your minimum price is available. If you are good enough to judge a worthwhile performance and the future price is sensible you have a good chance of turning an overall profit. One extra factor to remember: back yourstable runners in EVERY race it starts in no matter the class. Where else do you think the 12/1 plus winners normally come from that help you win with this approach? I remember all so clearly a punting mate of mine forming a stable some years ago only to leave out two 33/1 plus winners within a month (one beat Sunline in the wet: trained by John Size? - just cannot remember its name) he believed were outclassed on the day. The lesson learned was expensive but he never did it again. Make sure you don't.