Spring time, according to folklore, is when a young mans fancy turns to love however I am adding my own twist when I say "springtime is a time when an older punter dreams of Derby Day at Flemington". The new piece of folklore I have added is the only sane explanation I can forward for the fact I am sitting at my computer at 4.20 a.m. writing this blog, after waking for an early morning toilet break. An older punter should NEVER think about Derby Day this early in the morning because th

Spring time, according to folklore, is when a young mans fancy turns to love however I am adding my own twist when I say "springtime is a time when an older punter dreams of Derby Day at Flemington". The new piece of folklore I have added is the only sane explanation I can forward for the fact I am sitting at my computer at 4.20 a.m. writing this blog, after waking for an early morning toilet break. An older punter should NEVER think about Derby Day this early in the morning because there is no doubt he will start thinking about the LKS MacKinnon Stakes for starters, then ponder ever so slightly over the VRC Derby and if the Salinger Stakes is thought about then goodbye Mr Sandman.
Well, I did think about the Salinger and I am wide awake so here I am.

In the December edition of PPM, in my column "Roamin' Around" (the editor, Brian Blackwell came up with that title, btw), I initially expressed disappointment with the lack of initiative by some of the jockeys in the Plate but I tempered that with saying this was my immediate reaction straight after the race. By the time I finished the article, a few days after the race, I had changed my mind and had wondered about the ability of horses like Whobegotyou and Heart Of Dreams to run a strong 2040m. There had been a comment made by one of the racing scribes/commentator that perhaps the 4yo's were not that good but in all fairness both the above mentioned duo might have had enough this campaign and to label them weak may be premature. By the end of the Autumn, when the 3yo quinella horses, So You Think and Manhattan Rain, finish their AJC Derby campaign and Whobegotyou and Heart Of Dreams finish their BMW assault, after the Australian Cup, we will know if there is some basis for this opinion.

The coming week is THE most hectic time of the year for Mr and Ms Keen Punter as trying to avoid losers, even after some well thought out strategies, needs constant and strict attention. To the once a year type of punters it is a smorgasbord as they will bet on just about every race with gay abandon because that is the order of their day or days for those buttering up. When the four day carnival is over very few will travel to Sandown/Betfair Park, bar those living that side of Melbourne, and any losses incurred are simply put aside as "it was a tough carnival but there is always next year".
When you think about it their approach is no different to us desperadoes as their strategy revolves around next year while ours revolves around next week. It all revolves around the word "next".

Over the carnival I might bet seriously in eight races, less seriously in another eight, flippantly for tiny amounts in a dozen races and not at all in the remainder of the around 38 races usually run each year over the four days. For someone who takes their betting seriously I find the Flemington carnival a particularly dangerous time on the punt as there are just so many top races it is easy to get caught up in the hype versus actually looking for solid bets.

There is one race I will never fall for again and that is the VRC Derby after succumbing to an attack of Whobegotyou fever last year. It took the win by 100/1 chance Rebel Raider to cement this approach into the recesses of my brain. This time of the year it is asking for trouble to be betting on young, immature horse over a distance almost 500m metres longer than their lead up races and there is enough trouble in other races without adding to the task.

It's 5a.m. and after having had a cup of tea and a slice of raisin toast I am ready to hop onto the Australian Racing Board site, print the weights and start with the doodles, arrows and asterisks that constitute my initial form analysis. Naturally, you have all been sleeping peacefully while I have been tapping away but tonight while you are all awake I will have had enough for the day and will rejoin Mr Sandman.