I sense some upsets this round, so have decided to go with the following: FREMANTLE v ESSENDON- Fremantle Under 39.5 @ $2.75Though the return of inspirational skipper Jobe Watson will bolster Essendon's midfield immensely, I still think the long trip west is a bridge too far for the Bombers. Essendon have lost five of their last six games at Pattersons/Subiaco and I think an excellent pre-season is starting to take its toll, as they currently appear flat. Freo are no world-beaters at the moment
I sense some upsets this round, so have decided to go with the following:
FREMANTLE v ESSENDON
- Fremantle Under 39.5 @ $2.75
Though the return of inspirational skipper Jobe Watson will bolster Essendon's midfield immensely, I still think the long trip west is a bridge too far for the Bombers. Essendon have lost five of their last six games at Pattersons/Subiaco and I think an excellent pre-season is starting to take its toll, as they currently appear flat. Freo are no world-beaters at the moment either, but they challenged Hawthorn strongly for three-quarters in Melbourne last week and hopefully the return of Michael Barlow to the midfield can see Pav released to more dangerous positions in front of goal. It won't be a blowout but Freo should get the job done by under 39.5.
HAWTHORN v GEELONG
- Hawthorn Under 39.5 @ $3.30
Lance Franklin remains in doubt for this game but I still think Hawthorn can break their hoodoo against Geelong on Saturday night. Hawthorn play the MCG very well and I'm confident they're ready to take a big step forward this week. Geelong are obviously a champion team - and champion teams win the close games - but their 10-0 record is a touch flattering in my opinion, with 1, 2 and 3 point wins that could clearly have gone the other way. Geelong are very beatable and I think Hawthorn will do just that on Saturday.
GOLD COAST v NORTH MELBOURNE
- Gold Coast Under 39.5 @ $3.90
- Gold Coast Over 39.5 @ $16.00
Gold Coast will beat North Melbourne, and beat them easily. There, I've said it! This one goes under the 'I've got a feeling...' category more than anything else, but I think the young legs of the Gold Coast might go to town on a pretty pedestrian North Melbourne outfit. If they get on top early in front of their home crowd, they could run away with it, as they are already a side renowned for piling on goals in quick succession. Under 39.5 should be the main play here, but the over 39.5 @ $16.00 looks to be outrageous value and worth a small play too.
MELBOURNE v COLLINGWOOD
- Melbourne Win @ $4.50
Melbourne surprisingly tested Collingwood in their premiership year, going down by just 1 point in Round 2 (when Ricky Petterd dropped THAT mark on the siren!) and drawing in Round 12. With Arizona-enjoying Dane Swan and the suspended Dale Thomas joining Darren Jolly on the sidelines, and Melbourne exhibiting new-found confidence after a much better showing against Essendon last week, I am confident the Demons' awkward style will again trouble the premiers. $4.50 looks excellent value and a good head to head bet.