If having to find a way to bring down star Sydney filly Overreach wasn’t going to be hard enough
If having to find a way to bring down star Sydney filly Overreach wasn’t going to be hard enough for Victoria’s Golden Slipper runners, they also have history to overcome.
The Garden State’s three representatives – two guaranteed starters and the second emergency – all have an ominous statistical pointers against them, none more so than leading fancy Villa Verde.
The grey filly, prepared by Shaun Dwyer at Bendigo, will become the first youngster in at least 30 years to win the race off only one lead-up run if successful. Seasoned campaigners tend to rise in the Slipper with only six of the past 30 winners not having had at least three lead-ups runs.
The David Hayes-trained Fast ‘N’ Rocking satisfies that criteria, preparing for his fourth run this time in, but his problem he is yet to win a race.
Maidens rarely feature in the world’s premier juvenile event and only Calaway Gal, who finished third in the Sweet Embrace Stakes and second in the Magic Night Stakes, has not won one of their Slipper lead-up races since 1983.
Twenty Golden Slipper winners in that time have come off a last-start victory, which is good news for Peter Moody-trained emergency Il Cavallo. The bad news is that no horse has won the Slipper at its second start and every one of the past 30 winners have come out of a Black Type race.
Il Cavallo made a winning debut, albeit in track record time, in a modest 900m event at Sportingbet Park (Sandown) last Wednesday.
Overreach, the $2.30 favourite with the TAB, is the horse they all have to beat. Nineteen horses have started $2.50 or shorter in the 56 editions of the Slipper for six wins, but none since Bounding Away ($2.25) in 1986.
Alinghi was the most recent favourite to start shorter than $2.30, finishing third at $1.70 in 2004.
That came during a horror stretch for Slipper favourite backers with no favourite successful between Courtza ($4.50, 1989) and Sebring ($6, 2008). Sepoy, who scored at $2.80 two years ago, has won as favourite since.
Overreach will start from barrier one, which is clearly the most successful in recent Slipper history, having produced six winners since 1995. Three of those have come in the past six years, including Overreach’s stablemate Pierro last year.
Overreach accounted for Villa Verde when they were both having their final Slipper lead-up in the Reisling Stakes, a race that has been among the lead-up form for six of the past 30 winners.
The Blue Diamond Stakes, in which Fast ‘N’ Rocking finished second has also produced six winners, one fewer than the most successful lead-up race of the past 30 years, the Skyline Stakes.
Skyline winner, I’m All The Talk, and third placegetter Dothraki are those who have got to Saturday’s race via the Skyline.
The Golden Slipper is one of five Group 1s on one of the great days on the Australian calendar with the main support race the $2.25m The BMW, in which Fiveandahalfstar chasing a unique place in history.
Three-year-olds have a great record in The BMW since it became a weight-for-age race in 1977, with the likes of Kingston Town, Bonecrusher, Beau Zam and Octagonal among the 10 winners from that age group, but no Victoria Derby winner has won it.
Five have tried with Arena, who ran third in 1999, the only to place.
Fiveandahalfstar will start favourite and be out to become the 13th favourite to salute since 1983. The BMW has been known to produce a blowout, however, with Curata Storm winning at $91 in 2001 and there have been four subsequent winners at $26 or longer.
Three-year-olds also have a great record in the day’s other weight-for-age event for both sexes, the George Ryder Stakes, which Pierro will be looking to add to this weekend.
Three-year-olds males have won 10 of the 34 runnings at WFA – fillies winning a further three – and the Waterhouse-trained superstar will be looking to join Manikato and Baguette as only Golden Slipper winners to later claim the Ryder.
Pierro won the Canterbury Stakes at his most recent outing and Emancipation, Straussbrook and Quick Flick are the only horses to complete that double in the past 30 years.
The past two Ryder winners, Rangirangdoo and Metal Bender, ran fourth and third respectively in the Canterbury Stakes and made it four straight wins in the Ryder for six-year-old geldings.
Rangirangdoo and Metal Bender both also started at the same quote; $15.
More Joyous was runner-up to Pierro last start, which denied her three straight Canterbury Stakes successes, but she gets another opportunity to bring up three straight wins in a Group 1 race in the Queen of the Turf Stakes.
The six-year-old has won the past two editions at prohibitive quotes - $1.24 and $1.55 – and will again start favourite this year. That’s no disadvantage with nine of the past 11 editions won by the favourite.
The day’s other Group 1 is the Vinery Stud Stakes for the three-year-old fillies, in which Dear Demi will be looking to become the seventh Crown Oaks winner in the past 11 seasons to win the 2000-metre event.