The spell dates, that is the days between starts, for some horses are a real worry for the punter.This weekend there are two horses racing at Caulfield that fit this worrying pattern. In race two Kwassa Kwassa raced 7 days ago after a 35 day break, which was preceded by 43 days away from the track and the run before was first up from 188 days. His two runs prior to the spell had breaks of 63 and 28 days. There is no doubt this horse has had problems and it is a credit to both the trainer, Shane

The spell dates, that is the days between starts, for some horses are a real worry for the punter.This weekend there are two horses racing at Caulfield that fit this worrying pattern. In race two Kwassa Kwassa raced 7 days ago after a 35 day break, which was preceded by 43 days away from the track and the run before was first up from 188 days. His two runs prior to the spell had breaks of 63 and 28 days. There is no doubt this horse has had problems and it is a credit to both the trainer, Shane Stockdale, and the horse to note his prizemoney totals $208,475.

In race 5 Gibraltar Moon has breaks of 98, 28,37, 26 and 113 days peppered within her last five runs again indicating problems. Although her prizemoney only totals $149,339 connections at least have the bonus of being able to breed from her which is not the case with Kwassa Kwassa, who has had the "snip".

From a punting point of view both runners represent the type of horse the punter has to steer clear of simply because it is not known how fit the horse is after each break as their spell dates are not in the comfort zone fourteen days suitable to most horses. In the prepost TAB odds Kwassa Kwassa is $5.50 and Gibraltar Moon is $3.50 and in the long term these are not profitable odds for this type of horse. What the odds are saying is KK is an 18% chance of winning and GM is a 28% chance of winning and for mine that is not value.

I am not betting seriously in both races but if I do it will be for a miniscule amount on a roughie, if there is one at odds worth worrying about. If I am beaten I hope both win as connections certainly deserve a win from their respective runners as I am sure they have had their fair share of worries along the way.

Just testing a few ideas
Randwick: All each way
Race 2 No 1 Mafia Miss
Race 3 No 6 Hus Der Lieften
Race 4 Nos 1 Moatize
9 Lycean Academy
Race 6 Nos 1 Theseo
12 Brilliant Light
19 Snapy Halo
Race 7 No1 Gold Trail

Caulfield: All each way
Race 3 No 9 Knightsbridge
Race 6 No 2 Gran Sasso

Morphettville: All each way
Race 5 No 6 Devil May Care