By studying the official handicappers ratings for each runner you will have every chance of saving yourself the problem of backing horses on the limit weight that are outclassed. In the 2000m open handicap in Perth this Saturday there are ten horses that have been nominated and seven of them are on the limit. The problem with horses on the limit is that some of them cannot win because even on the limit they are badly handicapped,based on their overall career.The top weight Mansion House has 60kg

By studying the official handicappers ratings for each runner you will have every chance of saving yourself the problem of backing horses on the limit weight that are outclassed.
In the 2000m open handicap in Perth this Saturday there are ten horses that have been nominated and seven of them are on the limit. The problem with horses on the limit is that some of them cannot win because even on the limit they are badly handicapped,based on their overall career.

The top weight Mansion House has 60kg and is rated as a 94 class horse. The horses on the limit are Bet Ahead (70), Classy Clan (68), My Empire (76), Mythical Man (78), Sister Ava (54), Striken (79) and Urban Waltz (72). If you assume that 2 rating points equals 1 kg the weights that should be allotted are Bet Ahead (48), Classy Clan (47), My Empire (51), Mythical Man (52), Sister Ava (40), Striken (52.5) and Urban Waltz (49).

On the weights that should be carried it is obvious only My Empire, Mythical Man and Striken have any chance of overcoming the overweight they are carrying. I usually give horses on the limit a maximum of 2kg (4 pts) slack but that is all. Naturally, if a claim is exercised the disadvantage of the limit weight can be eased but then again it depends on which claiming jockey we have on board.

In my initial study of the weights on Tuesday night I dismissed the trio mentioned above along with the others on the limit but now I have three other possibles to consider.

***Late Bulletin** The final field shows only Mythical Man has been accepted for the race along with the original higher weighted runners in Mansion House, Star Encounter and Reverend Lovejoy thus there are only four possible chances. That assessment does not make me a genius because there are only six runners entered anyway but what is more important is the process I used to eliminate the no hopers.

As I am not a fan of Mansion House I am down to three chances. Reverend Lovejoy is on fire but rises 4kg for a 3 length win over Calico Blue, Star Encounter beat the ordinary Casual Life last start by only 0.75 len and Mythical Man beat the reasonable Observation by 0.5 len and drops 3.5kg after Chloe Chatfield's claim. As I try to stick to the winners keep winning theor, as much as possible, I will have Reverend Lovejoy in the A position and as I am not that impressed by Casual Life I will slot Mythical Man into the B position. My bet will be the 3-6 exacta.