Spring racing is here!.Although there have been a couple of good warm up bouts the big guns are starting to appear. I have no idea how many races will be won by the likes of Miss Scarlatti, Headway, Rostova, Orange County, Whobegotyou, Heart Of Dreams, Typhoon Tracy and Romneya with honourable mentions to likely improvers like Vigor, Miss Maren, Predatory Pricer and Gallica this Spring but what a starting list. Looking north I note Mentality, Kroner and Phelan Ready can be added to the list as w

Spring racing is here!.Although there have been a couple of good warm up bouts the big guns are starting to appear. I have no idea how many races will be won by the likes of Miss Scarlatti, Headway, Rostova, Orange County, Whobegotyou, Heart Of Dreams, Typhoon Tracy and Romneya with honourable mentions to likely improvers like Vigor, Miss Maren, Predatory Pricer and Gallica this Spring but what a starting list. Looking north I note Mentality, Kroner and Phelan Ready can be added to the list as well and heaven knows which improvers I have missed. Oh yeah: add El Segundo and Mic Mac, as well.

The question is how can we profit from the big guns mentioned remembering there are more to come. One way is to back them all to win $x per race as long as the price is sensible but what is a sensible price?

As I write this on Thursday night the TAB has priced my six nominees for the future from the JJListon Stakes this way: $2.60 Typhoon Tracy, $4.20 Whobegotyou, $6.00 Heart Of Dreams, $7.50 Predatory Pricer, $10.00 Orange County and $21.00 Gallica. There is every chance every one of these horses can win a race at 4/1, slightly less at 6/1 and riskier as the odds get longer. Boldness decrees we nominate 4/1 as THE minimum acceptable price however you can set this at 10/1 if you like or play safer and make it 7/1. Remember, we are trying to judge a price where most of the runners can win a race if they start at that price or longer.

If we do a little target betting why not back each of them to win 1 unit (this can be $1 or $10 or ??) per race they contest plus recover all losses when they win. If the price is longer than 4/1 divide by the available price.

For example, let's say Orange County has cost us $20 over a few runs and Heart Of Dreams is losing us $40. OC is 10/1 and Heart Of Dreams is 4/1 therefore we have $2 on Orange County and $10 on Heart Of Dreams. If Gallica runs in the WS Cox Plate tomorrow she would be 100/1 and if you were losing $20 on her your bet would be $0.20 or raised to a minimum of $1.

Give it some thought and you will see this is a simple way to punt in the first instance but further thought will show you actually need to have a plan and not just slap up a list of horses.

For the exercise, from the above list, I will nominate Miss Scarlatti, Heart Of Dreams, Vigor and Kroner for the rest of the carnival. Each is capable of snaring a good race at good odds. I make my minimum price 6/1.