Would you follow the lead if you saw an owner have a very large bet on one of his horses? I am of the belief that most punters would consider this a tip of the highest order and would reach into their wallet, extract several notes and hop on as well. By now respected owner David Moodie and connections will have paid the $150000 late entry fee for their filly Crystal Lily to run in the $3.5 million dollar Golden Slipper. The first prize in the Golden Slipper, forgetting trophies and other minor i

Would you follow the lead if you saw an owner have a very large bet on one of his horses? I am of the belief that most punters would consider this a tip of the highest order and would reach into their wallet, extract several notes and hop on as well. By now respected owner David Moodie and connections will have paid the $150000 late entry fee for their filly Crystal Lily to run in the $3.5 million dollar Golden Slipper. The first prize in the Golden Slipper, forgetting trophies and other minor incentives, is $2 million thus the connections are getting 12.33 to 1 about their "bet" on a horse quoted $6.50 for the race which is a nice bit of overs.The connections of Masquerader ($13) and Decision Time ($21) are also paying the late fee.

If you look at it mathematically the connections of Decision Time are taking unders their outlay but, and it is a huge but, what needs to be considered is the value of their horse if it wins the race. Now, all of a sudden, their investment looks less like a gamble but more like an investment albeit there is a subtle difference between the two.

These days I am not a huge fan of 2yo races like the Golden Slipper firstly from a punting viewpoint as lining up the improvement factor on the basis of a handful of runs is fraught with punting danger. I also wonder whether all the runners are actually physically mature enough to contest this high pressure race. I guess you have to leave it to the trainers to judge the maturity issue but I am sure the lure of the quick dollar is a massive incentive just the same.

Personally, I will be having Crystal Lily in my top three chances (she was there anyway before the late payment) and whether she becomes the A selection quite clearly depends on the barrier draw. Add Brightexpectations (what a win last Saturday),Military Rose and I have not given up on Beneteau (poorly ridden last start) to find my four top chances. The barrier draw tomorrow will decide many punters A to D order.