Do you trust the 3yo fillies Sydney form lines or the 3yo fillies Melbourne formlines? If you trust Sydney you will be deciding between Melito and Sister Madly for the A position. On the bare facts the selection must be Sister Madly as she finished ahead of Melito even after blowing the start a fraction and stumbling at the 200m when both finished behind More Joyous.If you favour the Melbourne form lines you have to decide between Majestic Music, Irish Lights, Silent Surround, Miss With Attitude
Do you trust the 3yo fillies Sydney form lines or the 3yo fillies Melbourne formlines? If you trust Sydney you will be deciding between Melito and Sister Madly for the A position. On the bare facts the selection must be Sister Madly as she finished ahead of Melito even after blowing the start a fraction and stumbling at the 200m when both finished behind More Joyous.
If you favour the Melbourne form lines you have to decide between Majestic Music, Irish Lights, Silent Surround, Miss With Attitude, Fomalite and Mont Fleuri. It's easy enough listing the six Melbourne chances as their form decrees they are the best chances based on their runs in the classier races at Listed and Group level however there is one other runner to consider. This filly is Jolie Brise who slaughtered My Emotions at Caulfield when completing a hat trick of wins. Admittedly the 1600m is a query however she is on the up and one of the hardest parts of form work is assessing the lightly raced improver.
The $2.30 prepost favourite is Irish Lights who beat Mont Fleuri by 1.5L last start 25 days ago and that filly was beaten 1.3L by Majestic Music at her subsequent start. Considering Irish Lights gets back in the run early, has not raced at 1600m and is off a 25 day break she does not represent value to me at that price. Miss With Attitude was beaten 3L by Majestic Music two runs ago and last start finished 1.1L behind Caulfield Guineas runner up Carrara, after striking trouble at the start of the race.
As far as I am concerned that has Majestic Music on top as she beat the chances I mentioned above in the Edward Manifold Stakes after giving most a start from the home turn. Fomalite improved her beaten margin at her first 1600m run last start behind Majestic Music hence further improvement is not beyond her. I am interested in slotting Sister Madly in there and she can only be 3rd pick based on my form thoughts so far. For fourth I am putting in Jolie Brise based on her defeat of Fomalite two runs ago. This all means I am going to lay Irish Lights at $2.30 on Betfair! The one problem, which I am prepared to concede, is that Irish Lights might be really, really good as she beat Avenue easily two runs ago when blocked for a run however that was first up over 1100m and today the distance is 1600m!!
In the Mares race the class horse, simply on wins, is Purple and she ran a fantastic race first up however all her wins have been on slow or heavy going and she is 2nd up at 1600m. The latter is probably not an issue at the Set Weights but I just cannot have her on top in this race if the track is dry. Prima Nova represents a fair bit of class but if you can follow her you win a gold bike as she just did not fire second up after an enormous first up run. Dane Julia is the form horse you can have more confidence in as she is a dry tracker with quite some ability especially against her own sex. Cats Whisker would be a short priced favourite if she was in this race so DJ's last run must have her on top for mine. Clandon almost beat the in form Excelltastic in the Gold Nugget and back to mares here represents a top chance and if DJulia flops it will be Clandon that can present the biggest danger. I feel I am sort of guessing after this with the likes of Dollops, Belleza Veloz, Lamaar, Silent Sophia and Running Riot but all are there as some sort of chance in a tough race.
Summing up A = Dane Julia B = Clandon C = Purple D = Prima Nova
You will have an idea after the Guineas if my pocket is lighter or has increased in bulkage depending on how right or wrong I am with Irish Lights. Whatever happens I hope your day is a winning one so good luck to all.