To formulate a worthwhile system involves adhering to some basic principles based around form, fitness ,distance , class and track conditions. The following rules are tough and should address these main concerns. I mentioned some of these previously when mentioning Plan C but in this document let's cross the t's and dot the I's.PLAN CRule 1: No 1st up runners We just do not know how fit they actually are so why guess?Rule 2: No 2nd up runners even if they won 1st up We apply this rule to ensure
To formulate a worthwhile system involves adhering to some basic principles based around form, fitness ,distance , class and track conditions. The following rules are tough and should address these main concerns. I mentioned some of these previously when mentioning Plan C but in this document let's cross the t's and dot the I's.
PLAN C
Rule 1: No 1st up runners
We just do not know how fit they actually are so why guess?
Rule 2: No 2nd up runners even if they won 1st up
We apply this rule to ensure the first up run did not flatten the horse in any way and to play safe just in case the run was inconclusive. Again, like first up, why take the risk?
Rule 3: Must have raced within the last 17 days or less
Again the fitness issue is covered. You could be tighter and insist on 14 days or less but 17 days allows for runners coming off a good midweek run that have not been away from the racetrack for too long.
Rule 4: Must have finished within 2 lengths of the winner last start or won the race
This, again, caters for the fitness issue. There will horses that have been caught wide or knocked rotten in the previous race and have finished just outside the two lengths requirement. Logic says they should have finished closer but this is a system thus personal judgement cannot be used.
Rule 5: Must have won at this distance within the overall distance range
Just look at the distance range listed in most form guides i.e 1000m-2000m . Wear the fact that on occasions we will miss a winner that may have run a blinder at a certain distance outside the distance range and all indications are that it can runs today's distance but it has yet to win at the distance.
Rule 6: Must fall into these track conditions limitations:
a) If today's track is fast to good: must have won in either fast or good going (would eliminate very few horse). Do NOT include Dead track wins - fast and good only.
b) If today's track is dead: must have won in fast, good or dead going (would eliminate very few horses). Do NOT include if only wins in slow or heavy (will eliminate the mudlarks who need it very wet)
c) If today's track is slow: must have won in slow or heavy going (if can handle slow can usually handle heavy)
d) If today's track is heavy: must have won in slow or heavy
Rule 7: Must not be weighted on the limit weight
A rule not often seen in systems but quite often horses on the limit should be carrying less weight but the handicapper must allot them the limit to stay within the rules of handicapping.
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I think you will agree these are tough rules and on any normal Saturday would assist in whittling down the Plan A selections quite dramatically. The real plus side shows we are now dealing with horses that have proven themselves to be fit and capable of running top races at today's distance and in the prevailing track conditions.
As we advance in this experiment we now have:
Plan A = The wildcat every race selection system
Plan B = My personal selections
Plan C = The wildcat selections minus horses not passing Rules 1-7 above.
Astute form students could now apply themselves to the Plan C selections and deal with issues over wide barriers, running styles, jockeys and trainers. These are personal form issues for the punter and have no place in a system such as Plan C which can be worked out without personal input.
There is absolutely no doubt the runs of outs will be reduced dramatically by applying Rules 1-7 but, as always, bad runs will occur. With the correct bank size, objective per race and divisor the bad runs can be weathered.
I originally planned to provide the Excel spreadsheet detailing Plan A selections and bets but I need to readjust a couple of areas so will hold that over until more time is available.