According to some racing people a horse will be fine on a slow or heavy track because the sire was a proven wet tracker. Another comment I have heard is "the mother was terrific in the wet". It fascinates me to even hear some respected racing people make these comments as over many years on the punt I have never seen a study that proves either of the above tenets. The only "facts" I can provide are those shown in the racing paper "Winning Post" which has a section c

According to some racing people a horse will be fine on a slow or heavy track because the sire was a proven wet tracker. Another comment I have heard is "the mother was terrific in the wet". It fascinates me to even hear some respected racing people make these comments as over many years on the punt I have never seen a study that proves either of the above tenets. The only "facts" I can provide are those shown in the racing paper "Winning Post" which has a section called "Bred To Swim", where slow and heavy track runs are tabulated for sires and broodmare sires.

It was only a couple of weeks ago when I heard a commentator stating the progeny of Lonhro do not "go in the wet" yet the following day one of his progeny won with the proverbial leg in the air on a slow track. At the time I thought it was an "over the top" statement so I dragged out the section this week and I am here to tell you Lonhro's progeny have THE best strike rate of all sires listed, at 20% over 146 runs for 29 wins. As always I am quick to point out that a sample figure of 146 is not statistically significant, as far as I am concerned, so time, or a number closer to 500 runs, will show whether Lonhro's progeny are ok in the wet or not but at least he is leading right now.

Looking at the figures from another angle what should I make of the strike rates for Bianconi (9%) , Encosta De Lago (9%) and Redoubte's Choice (12%) in slow and heavy conditions? You could say "well, Roman the stats speak for themselves: don't back their runners in the wet" but I would reply in the total for all conditions their respective percentages are 11%, 10% and 18%. Subtracting the slow-heavy percentages from all conditions show on fast-dead tracks the percentages are better for Bianconi and Encosta De Lago in the dry by 1-2% BUT drop for Lonhro!! Does this mean you should not back Lonhro sired runners in the dry? Of course it doesn't which all goes to show what a load of bollocks those initial quotes/comments I presented actually are. Just concentrate on THE horse as it's the one doing the running. The form guide, or observation, will tell you if the HORSE can handle the wet or not.